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Jan Finster

Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

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TheWind

I've been told that we`d resume work on the 18th, as of now, and that's in Shanghai.  There will probably be some precautions as we resume

 

Too be honest, China has contained it pretty well.  I'm not too concerned considering only . 00001% (guesstimate) of patients who are infected actually die from it. So, it's kinda like a very contagious flu if you think about it. 

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dtcamero
2 hours ago, roddy said:

 

"Only"? Measles is about as contagious as they get. 

 

only one-fifth of the contagiousness of measles, i.e. not nearly as contagious as measles.

virus droplets navigating all the twists and turns of a building’s plumbing system to successfully infect people in other units sounds like a crazy measles story, not a flu story (if that is how it happened... more likely to be elevator buttons and other shared surfaces imho)

that was an interesting read though about the building design etc. potentially contributing to the problem. sounds like that building smelled pretty iffy even at the best of times.

 

fyi the NYT has some sexy graphics on the contagiousness/deadliness of this virus as opposed to other historical examples

69C9F847-F94D-46E6-B471-D06872B0093B.jpeg

86AC136C-6B63-4ABE-98F8-BEA57562C966.jpeg

579E2CAB-E879-4F89-B3BE-6EBB2E4A90D4.jpeg

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vellocet

On the Origins of the 2019-nCoV Virus

Here, I review four Option on the origins of the 2019-nCoV Coronavirus isolated from human patients from Wuhan, China.

 

Option 4. A recombined virus made in a laboratory for the purpose of creating a vaccine.

 

Evidence for: Sequence homology between INS1378 to pShuttle Coronavirus vaccine; presence of a SARS-like Spike protein in bat coronavirus, otherwise most similar to bat coronaviruses; low bootstrap value.

 

Evidence against: Low sequence homology (but highly signifiant). NB these viruses are RNA viruses and they can evolve quickly, even under laboratory conditions.

Status: Most likely.

 

The available evidence most strongly supports that the 2019-NCoV virus is a vaccine strain of coronavirus either accidentally released from a laboratory accident, perhaps a laboratory researcher becoming infected with the virus while conducting animal experiments, or the Chinese were performing clinical studies of a Coronavirus vaccine in humans.

 

Moderately Strong Confirmation of a Laboratory Origin of 2019-nCoV

 

The resulting massive alignment confirms a major unique inserted element in 2019-nCoV not found in other bat coronaviruses, nor in SARS in the homologous genomic position.

 

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889

"sounds like a crazy measles story, not a flu story (if that is how it happened... imho) "

 

Repeat after me, as many times as necessary:

 

"It ain't the flu! It ain't the flu! It ain't the flu!"

 

Then read all the literature on the Amoy Gardens outbreak -- there's a lot of it -- and see whether there's any support for your based-on-who-knows-what theory that it was "more likely to be elevator buttons and other shared surfaces." You're way out of your depth on this, and when it comes to issues affecting people's health, best take some time to be correct.

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dtcamero

@889 well you don’t know 100% how it was transmitted either, right? correct me if i’m wrong.

i do know there are shared elevators in the Amoy Gardens buildings and i know from experience that viruses travel exceedingly well on elevator buttons. 

what i’ve read so far on the Amoy Gardens is fascinating though.

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889

I know what everyone with expertise has concluded about Amoy Gardens. It's been very intensely studied.

 

Really, what's the point of showing ignorance on this? Calling it "the flu" is a tip-off.  But go right ahead, if you wish.

 

(If the virus had been spread by lift buttons, cases would have been distributed fairly randomly through Block E. But in fact they were sort-of clustered near the initial victim's flat.)

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Flickserve

@dtcamero

 

The Amoy Gardens incident was definitely not the sharing of buttons. There were intense investigations on to how so many people almost simultaneously got infected at a time of reduced people movement. Various theories were proposed and excluded. If I remember correctly, elevator buttons were already covered with plastic films and sterilised every hour in housing estates and offices in HK. The general public were already taking strong infection control behaviour.

 

That's why when we got news of the Amoy Gardens outbreak, there was stroke of palpable fear across the whole community. We were worried that the infection could not be controlled by disinfectant, hand washing, masks, cleaning etc. Yet what could we continue to do that already had not been done?

 

After Amoy Gardens, the public health advice is to keep the water levels in the bathroom drains filled - they are not visible so need regular maintenance. The lid on the toilet should be closed after defeacating - water droplets can rise from the flushing - coronavirus can last four days in faeces.

 

The block that I lived in got reported as having a SARS case. Saw people running off with their suitcases.

 

 

BTW, the daily mail is commonly known as the"daily fail" for poor standards and click bait titles.

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feihong
1 hour ago, vellocet said:

Option 4. A recombined virus made in a laboratory for the purpose of creating a vaccine.

The author of the linked blog post is a controversial figure in the United States. He is not considered by the scientific community to be an expert on vaccines. Although I lack the expertise to critique his  coronavirus post on a scientific basis, his track record suggests that I should treat it as a rumor at best, and fear-mongering at worst.

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889

Yes, there's nothing special about the Amoy Gardens plumbing: it's the standard in most HK residential blocks.

 

The "floor" drains, which are in the kitchen as well as the bathroom, are often hidden by built-ins, washing machines, etc. Further, they're usually set not flat in the floor but in the wall flush against the floor. All of which makes actually using them difficult. So in practice the gas traps are almost always dried out.

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vellocet

From your link:

 

Have you heard of the appeal to authority logical fallacy? 

 

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/the-fallacy-fallacy

 

Anyway, it will be out in a few days.  The science press is already covering it, which means the mainstream media will parrot it without understanding what they're saying in a few days.  

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally

 

“The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace” 

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ChTTay
10 hours ago, TheWind said:

I've been told that we`d resume work on the 18th, as of now, and that's in Shanghai. 

The date of February 17th has been bounced around China as the “start date” for schools for some time. It seems like they just threw a date out there to give everyone a fixed date to plan for... which makes sense. 

 

Since then, haven’t Hong Kong (and I think Jiangsu province at least) pushed the start date for schools out to March 3rd? Depending on how it goes, I can see everyone else following suit. 

 

The other issue is schools will likely be understaffed as anyone that left might not be willing or able to come back. 

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889

"BTW, the daily mail is commonly known as the 'daily fail' for poor standards and click bait titles."

 

That's why I rely on The Guardian for all my news. The great thing is, you don't even have to actually read it: you know what they're going to write before they ever write it.

 

Like this piece, you just knew they were going to run:

 

China's Reaction to the Coronavirus Outbreak Violates Human Rights

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dtcamero

most english newspapers are pretty obnoxious. the guardian reads like a continuous existential wail, punctuated by intermittent accusations of racism.

the daily mail is certainly garbage, only slightly better than the sun / mirror / star porn-news tabloids.

 

i used the mail’s article simply for their sexy graphic and to explain what the nature article within refers to...

that china’s largest and most advanced facility for studying the worlds most dangerous pathogens is not a stone’s throw from the infamous wet-market. and that the SARS virus escaped from a similar beijing laboratory twice.

 

i’ll defer to those here more informed than I about the SARS outbreak in hong kong, but nature is one of the world’s most prestigious scientific journals, so accordingly it’s entirely reasonable to be skeptical of that wet-market story

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roddy

@vellocet you're in Wenzhou, aren't you? Things seem to be tightening up there, how are you getting on? 

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StChris
5 hours ago, dtcamero said:

the guardian reads like a continuous existential wail, punctuated by intermittent accusations of racism

 

That's probably the most accurate description of The Guardian I have ever seen!

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Ruben von Zwack

Whow, 加油 Vellocet! Did you, or would you, consider an evacuation flight?

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thrice12

Updated info from UK Consular - https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VM0ZpxhEQzejDDSxSoqhrQ

 

There will be a number of new flights this week arranged by partner countries. We are working hard to get seats on those flights for British nationals and their immediate families – the Chinese authorities have confirmed that this would include Chinese and third-party nationals.

 

These may be the last flights available for foreign nationals out of Hubei. If you are in any part of Hubei or Wuhan, want to leave and have not yet registered with us, please do so as soon as possible using our 24/7 contact numbers +86(0)1085296600 or +44(0)2070081500. Please also continue to check our travel advice on www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/china for updates.  

 

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realmayo

The title of this topic doesn't limit discussion to China residents so I thought I'd ask if people in cities such as London are getting a bit nervous? The way I understand it, the next week or two are kind of crunch-time to see whether major cities through China "explode" with new cases or not. If they do then the suggestion is that it's only a matter of time before global cities in other countries are hit:

 

Quote

Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext#

 

Apologies to anyone locked down in Hubei if it appears tactless or self-indulgent to air hypothetical concerns from thousands of miles away (perhaps Admin might prefer a breakaway thread so that this one is limited to reports from the PRC?).

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