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Jan Finster

Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

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Meng Lelan

I'm in the US where news reported just now that Dr. Li Wenliang, the whistleblower doctor, has died at age 34 from coronavirus. 

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Weyland

4 more replies and we'll hit 444 replies on this thread. A momentous occasion for a thread like this.

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ChTTay
5 hours ago, realmayo said:

people I know in China seem devastated by the death of the whistle-blower doctor tonight.

Yes, a lot of people posting about this. All very upset. 
 

In fact, from Bill in the free edition of Sinocism: 

 

Social media is blowing up over the news that Wuhan whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang has died. This is from the Global Times, in a now deleted report:

Chinese doctor Li Wenliang, one of the eight whistleblowers who tried to warn other medics of the coronavirus outbreak but were reprimanded by local police, dies of coronavirus on Thursday in Wuhan, the Global Times has learned.

But in a morbid twist it appears that the relevant authorities, probably after seeing the online uproar, may not be allowing him to die officially yet. There has been quite the back and forth about whether or not he has actually passed. I saw reports from The Global Times, Caixin and The Beijing News that he had died; those are now gone. If they got it wrong then heads will role for making such a consequential “political error”. But from other reports on Wechat it sounds like the order came from above to keep him “alive”. It is all just so dark. 

The reports of Li’s death, true or not, are crystallizing deep anger and frustration. The Party’s social contract with the people—-ensuring the people’s well being and providing ever-increasing economic prosperity-is being stressed on a nationwide level in ways I don’t recall in the past several decades. Last Friday I wrote that “this is as close to an existential crisis for Xi and the Party that I think we have seen since 1989”, and I think it is even more so a week later.

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ChTTay

On a separate note, a friend in Yinchuan has told me they are now “locked down” so to speak. Everything has been shut down apart from supermarkets/markets. There is no public transport. 
 

As I mentioned, my neighbouring xiaoqu now has ID tags for residents. 

 

I’m bracing for them to implement the same in my community. I’m not sure Beijing would lock down entirely but I’m not sure. I hope it doesn’t happen. At the same time I’m also getting hit with sensationalist headlines via photo from the British media as well. 
 

It seems that 70-80% of foreigners at my workplace are in Beijing though. It doesn’t appear to be the mass exodus they talk about in the news. 

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mackie1402

My apartment complex in Hangzhou as of last night.

 

1365938647_39261581050001_.pic_hdcopy.thumb.jpg.a90a33dd78189a1739440d407f4246c8.jpg

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roddy

SCMP has a worrying read for anyone hoping China can get the right resources to the right place. 

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Jan Finster
9 hours ago, Meng Lelan said:

has died at age 34 from coronavirus. 

 

Highlighted to (again) dispel the myth that only old people die of coronavirus.

 

7 days ago, CNN showed this graph:

c8141784-1fe7-4118-87a1-3a157fa4a02a.png

 

1 week later the death rate of coronavirus (638 deaths) almost equals that of SARS and will surpass it pretty soon.

 

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Lu

A friend of mine, just returned from China, made the good point that the current lockdowns won't actually end the outbreak, they only delay it. Made sense to me: the virus is still out there, everybody is still susceptible to it and won't magically become immune in a few weeks, so once the lockdowns end the virus will still spead. Unless a vaccine is invented in the meantime.

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Jan Finster
4 minutes ago, Lu said:

A friend of mine, just returned from China, made the good point that the current lockdowns won't actually end the outbreak, they only delay it. Made sense to me: the virus is still out there, everybody is still susceptible to it and won't magically become immune in a few weeks, so once the lockdowns end the virus will still spead.

 

This does not make any sense to me.

 

At some point all susceptible people in Wuhan or China will have either recovered or died. Once they have recovered they should not spread the infection. So, people that have not been infected should be safe even though they have not become immune. Since the virus cannot survive in the environment for a long time, the cycle of contagion will eventually  stop.  (They virus may persist and keep cycling in wild animals)

 

 

 

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889

Everybody's Favourite Newspaper is reporting that the U.K. will soon ban entry to non-U.K. citizens who have been in "China" within the past 14 days. I'll guess that because of the strong relationship between the U.K. and Hong Kong, the restriction will only apply to those who've been in the Mainland.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7977607/Fury-Government-tells-people-flying-home-Asia-call-NHS-111-feel-ill.html

 

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Dawei3

It's very interesting how different communities dealing with this.  One friend is in 仙桃 Xiantao Hubei, near the epicenter.  However, she can go out for walks with her parents.  

 

She said they have to stay in the "village" when they go for walks.  They don't have the ticket system for going in and out.  (I forgot to ask her what Chinese word she meant when she said "village,"  because Xiantao is a city, not a village.  I don't know if she meant 社区.)  She's a patriotic & educated Chinese, so I like hearing her opinions.  I asked if she uses a VPN and she said "nooooo!, I obey the law".  

 

Food seems readily available where she is.  One compliant is that her internet is very slow.  She's calm and retains her normal positive outlook, so her area seems to be managing the issue well (or as well as can be expected)

 

13 hours ago, ChTTay said:

ack and forth about whether or not he has actually passed

This is so weird.  I have SCMP app send me news updates.  Yesterday, SCMP announced he died, then that he didn't and then that he did.  

 

The government is already reeling from the fact that people don't trust them.  The situation with the doctor is one of the worst things possible since it shows unequivocally that they continue to give out misinformation.  It's soooo shallow minded.  

 

On the other hand, Trump has actually been sending tweets supportive of Xi.  (albeit, Trump has the mindset of a 5 year old, so his tweets can change in an instant).

 

  

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

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Flickserve
18 minutes ago, Dawei3 said:

This is so weird.  I have SCMP app send me news updates.  Yesterday, SCMP announced he died, then that he didn't and then that he did.  


I got a little extra information and can speculate what happened that gives the confusing picture on the unfortunate Dr Li.

 

First, the original reports would have been correct and probably social media got a hold of it. However, the medical staff would probably have started giving him CPR and therefore, with artificial chest compressions, blood is still circulating, and he hasn’t died just yet. They might have got his heart pumping again which sounds plausible because he was put on ECMO which is a sort of cardiopulmonary bypass machine. Unfortunately he later succumbed permanently a short time later. 
 

In summary,
1) he did die (heart stopped pumping blood) (news gets reported),

2) was resuscitated (news gets retracted)

3) but later couldn’t be saved. (News confirms his passing)

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abcdefg
On 2/5/2020 at 5:42 PM, 889 said:

Hong Kong is de facto blockading itself from the Mainland. From Saturday, anyone coming from the Mainland will be quarantined for 14 days. This blocks HK as a last-chance exit from the Mainland, unless you have two weeks to spend in quarantine.

 

After catching up on reading the recent posts in this thread, I feel very fortunate to have gotten out when I did. 

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Dawei3
1 hour ago, Flickserve said:

1) he did die (heart stopped pumping blood) (news gets reported),

2) was resuscitated (news gets retracted)

 

#2 would have to happen within minutes of #1.  For 1&2 to happen, someone would have needed to rush out of the isolation unit, not even waiting to see if resuscitation worked (!!!), to tell the world he died.  Is this reasonable?  I'd expect the health care workers in these wards to be very dedicated - not running out & running at the mouth.  

 

He/she told at least 2 of China's official news sources.  Is it realistic to think someone in China actually did that while knowing that the doctor himself & 7 others had been detained by police for rumor spreading?  Would another healthcare worker put themself at similar risk?

 

Furthermore, State run media said his heart stopped at 9:30 PM.   2 official state run news sources announced his death at 10:40 PM.   Later news reports said that the resuscitation continued until 2:58 AM.  This makes no biological sense.  Cardiac resuscitation doesn't go on for 5 hours (or even 2 hours regardless of what the Wuhan gov't says).  Also, the coronavirus causes acute respiratory distress, meaning one's lungs are also not functioning properly and this triggers multiple organ failure.  CPR and heart shocks don't fix lung problems.  

 

I realize the above was offered as speculation.  If you think about the situation in detail, it's not probable.  

 

 

 

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Ruben von Zwack

It was often pointed out that Corona is a serious risk "just" to the elderly, and to people who are already ill. But how does this apply to 30-something Dr. Li Wenliang?

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Flickserve

@Dawei3

 

Information dissemination by wechat initially is definitely possible. There may well have been a group chat. News sources pick up on it.

 

1 hour ago, Dawei3 said:

Cardiac resuscitation doesn't go on for 5 hours

 

If he was started on ECMO it's definitely possible to have the five hour period.

 

 

Resuscitation and CPR can go on for as long as the team are willing to try. They don't necessarily stop at ten or twenty minutes. It wouldn't surprise me to find out CPR had been carried out for an extended period.

 

 

 

I'm trained in resuscitation and also taught it. Also been responsible for intensive care. That's why I offer such a theory to roughly explain the sequence of events. Speculative? Yes, but also plausible. 

 

 

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Flickserve
1 hour ago, Dawei3 said:

 

#2 would have to happen within minutes of #1. 

 

Not necessarily

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Shelley
1 hour ago, Ruben von Zwack said:

how does this apply to 30-something Dr. Li Wenliang?

 

It has been said that as he was working with patients and may have been infectected several times over and over a longer period before it was acknowledged as this virus, he was probably quite ill even for a young person.

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