Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

[Ruben von Zwack]

What about the self-inflicted economic wound though, by reacting too late to the Corona virus. As far as I'm aware, at this point, no business expert and no politician in this world can even remotely assess the damage. Maybe it is just convenient in such a situation to play up tensions with other countries.

[dtcamero]

@Ruben von Zwack yes i’m agreeing with your point. the possibility that closing the borders is for some geopolitical advantage seems remote compared to fear of the virus returning.

[ChTTay]

20 hours ago, mackie1402 said:

With a huge majority of foreign teachers on tourists visas which require them to leave every 60 days, I can imagine a lot of 英语培训 closing down. 

Is this really true these days?  A “huge majority”? 
 

I can’t imagine this being true in most of the larger cities these days. By the time I left that industry things were already tightening up a lot. 

[mackie1402]

2 hours ago, ChTTay said:

Is this really true these days?  A “huge majority”? 
 

I can’t imagine this being true in most of the larger cities these days. By the time I left that industry things were already tightening up a lot. 

 

When did you leave? 

In 2017 the government announced there were 400,000 English teachers in China with 2/3 being illegal. While there have been more restrictions such as "You can only have a 培训班 on the third floor or lower" or "you have to have a minimum of 500m2 space" to register, a lot of places are still opening up illegally, hence still hiring foreigners illegally. 

 

There really hasn't been much of a decrease over the last 3 years, and even now, majority of foreigners you meet (in Hangzhou at least) are all teaching English. Considering quite a few aren't even native speakers, they must be illegal workers too as they can't get a working visa. 

[ChTTay]

Interesting! Where are those stats from? 
 

I left that industry in 2015-ish. In Beijing at least illegal teaching less common now than it used to be. A lot less cowboy schools around. Those that are tend to be in quite far out places that few foreigners want to work. It still exists for sure but not as crazy as it was. Sounds like Hangzhou is still a bit wilder. 

[ChTTay]

Sharing some 中国QT Photos...

 

I know someone on their 14 day QT right now. They picked a hotel at the 400rmb per room price and this includes breakfast. They can order food and drink into the hotel. 
 

The food is actually from a different hotel where 3 meals were provided due to having no option to order in. 
 

Overall they’re very happy with how they’ve been treated and the experience in general. Someone regularly checks in on them (phone calls) and in English. The people on site also speak some English. If they have any issues there’s always someone available to ask. They also got a negative test result back so just doing their 14 and then can go home. 

[mackie1402]

21 minutes ago, ChTTay said:

Interesting! Where are those stats from? 
 

I left that industry in 2015-ish. In Beijing at least illegal teaching less common now than it used to be. A lot less cowboy schools around. Those that are tend to be in quite far out places that few foreigners want to work. It still exists for sure but not as crazy as it was. Sounds like Hangzhou is still a bit wilder. 

 

I can't find the original article I read, but I also found it here on ChinaDaily

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/global/2019-08/05/content_37498627.htm

 

Yeah, it's pretty crazy how fast these schools turn around. In my old office building, all you could hear was constant decorating. While one school is opening, others are shutting down. The outside of the building is nonstop changing the signs of different education places. I know that to be registered in Hangzhou you have to be on the third floor or below, and as these are mostly above the third floor, you can see the problem. There are still definitely fewer schools working illegally than when I first arrived in 2012. Back then, I used to get approached just walking down the street "Hi! Where you from? English? English? You teacher? Wan' come teach my school?"

[feihong]

Some theaters in China were reopening, but now they’ve closed them down again: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-shuts-down-all-cinemas-again-1287040

 

If they were as confident about containment as they claim to be in the propaganda, I don’t think they would do this. The domestic film industry as a whole is in shambles right now, as film companies can neither release their films online nor in theaters.

[Jan Finster]

What do you guys think of the idea of (not) quarantining New York?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/28/trump-new-york-quarantine-coronavirus-152812

 

I think the situation in China with Wuhan was somewhat different in that Wuhan was clearly the epicenter. NY obviously has by far the most cases in the US, but I wonder if other states are just lacking behind and corona will explode there no matter what they do to NY (?) 

[889]

I don't understand Cuomo's strong objection to quarantine.

 

Was he just making an issue of it because of Trump? Does he think there's an important question of state's rights involved? Does he believe on medical grounds a quarantine would be ineffective? Or possibly impossible to police? Or something else?

 

Anyone know what's going on in New York?

 

[Jan Finster]

14 minutes ago, 889 said:

Was he just making an issue of it because of Trump? Does he think there's an important question of state's rights involved? Does he believe on medical grounds a quarantine would be ineffective? Or possibly impossible to police? Or something else?

He said it is "anti-American"...

 

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-trump-suggests-quarantine-new-york-new-jersey-connecticut-20200328.html

 

 

[889]

But that doesn't tell me what's really going on. Not to suggest anyone knows for sure. Just seems an inexplicable reaction given the dire situation in New York. TIme and again, he's shown he's not his dad, for sure.

[Jan Finster]

10 minutes ago, 889 said:

But that doesn't tell me what's really going on. Not to suggest anyone knows for sure. Just seems an inexplicable reaction given the dire situation in New York. TIme and again, he's shown he's not his dad, for sure.

 

I guess a lockdown and quarantine would mean a very high death rate in NY just like in Wuhan. I guess Cuomo already feels the noose tightening around his neck. I would be surprised if he stayed in office after this pandemic.

[889]

So absent a quarantine the death rate will be lower?

 

May be, if absent a quarantine everyone flees to Florida or New Hampshire. And dies there.

[Jan Finster]

11 minutes ago, 889 said:

May be, if absent a quarantine everyone flees to Florida or New Hampshire. And dies there.

?

 

I wonder if other states help out if NY hospitals are overwhelmed (?)  I know Germany has taken in some cases from France and Italy.

If they do not take cases from NY, then yes, letting people disperse (to Wyoming (?)) might lower the death toll.

[889]

Other states do not want fleeing New Yorkers. They don't want the virus. They don't want them taking up hospital beds.

 

They probably can't ban New Yorkers outright -- recall the anti-Okie cases -- but they probably can put people coming from an infected area like New York into mandatory quarantine as a public safety measure (and deterrent), and that seems to be happening in places.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/coronavirus-rhode-island-checkpoint.html

 

 

[杰.克]

?

[Lu]

On 3/27/2020 at 10:40 PM, 杰.克 said:

Interested to hear more on your thinking on this . Fairly extraordinary assessment to says its not because of the virus.

Right, okay. I'm not an international policy expert, so this is just armchair analysis.

 

The virus is in China already. The government says it has contained the epidemic, but even if you believe that (I don't, Chinese statistics are not reliable), it's not over. So it's not like the disease will not come to China if China closes the borders. It even originated in China, no foreigners needed. Furthermore, the number of people entering the country was already reduced to a trickle and anyone who did fly in was quarantined for two weeks. So why close the border?

 

At the same time, there is a propaganda battle going on between Chinese state media and Trump. Trump insists on calling it 'the Chinese virus' even though reasonable people ask him not to; Chinese state media are trying harder and harder to have people believe the virus came to Wuhan from the US. All this on top of the existing global struggle for top dog that has been going on for a few years now. Closing the border is then kind of a power play: we don't need you foreigners/we blame you foreigners for contaminating our country. Although China would of course not have suddenly closed its borders if there were no pandemic going on, the pandemic is just the immediate cause, not the full reason.

[Jan Finster]

2 hours ago, Lu said:

The government says it has contained the epidemic, but even if you believe that (I don't, Chinese statistics are not reliable), it's not over. So it's not like the disease will not come to China if China closes the borders. It even originated in China, no foreigners needed.

 While the virus may persist in wildlife, it is unclear if people will reinfect themselves with the same strain. If they do not, then it is plausible for me that the epidemic in China will soon be over.

 

2 hours ago, Lu said:

Furthermore, the number of people entering the country was already reduced to a trickle and anyone who did fly in was quarantined for two weeks. So why close the border?

 

I wonder, who paid for the hotel quarantine? Also, it looks like a lot of effort. Why not close the borders? Most western countries have closed their borders. They are not closing the borders to Chinese people, but to all people. 

 

2 hours ago, Lu said:

At the same time, there is a propaganda battle going on between Chinese state media and Trump. Trump insists on calling it 'the Chinese virus' even though reasonable people ask him not to; Chinese state media are trying harder and harder to have people believe the virus came to Wuhan from the US.

 

China only started to spread this rumour after Trump called it the "Chinese virus". Even though this may all be childish, China is not going to let the US/Trump bully them.

 

2 hours ago, Lu said:

Closing the border is then kind of a power play: we don't need you foreigners/we blame you foreigners for contaminating our country. Although China would of course not have suddenly closed its borders if there were no pandemic going on, the pandemic is just the immediate cause, not the full reason.

 

I think it is perfectly reasonable to close the borders from a disease-control perspective. If this pandemic has taught me one thing, then it is that most people will act super selfishly. There would be tons of people going to China because "they have planned it for a long time and the virus is not going to stop them" (modified quote from a spring-breaker...). Not letting foreigners in is a small sacrifice compared to the economic loss they have endured in January/February.

[Lu]

4 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

While the virus may persist in wildlife, it is unclear if people will reinfect themselves with the same strain. If they do not, then it is plausible for me that the epidemic in China will soon be over.

But in most cities, the epidemic was not nearly as bad as it was in Wuhan. As far as I can tell (from my armchair), most people in China haven't had it yet, and can still get it from other Chinese who do have it, now that restrictions are being reduced. No foreigners needed.

 

5 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

I wonder, who paid for the hotel quarantine?

I don't know, good question. I assume it's the travellers themselves.

 

6 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

China only started to spread this rumour after Trump called it the "Chinese virus". Even though this may all be childish, China is not going to let the US/Trump bully them.

International politics is a kindergarten without a teacher. This one I stand by, armchair or no armchair. Lord of the Flies is not about what children do when left alone, it's about international politics.