Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

[Flickserve]

The official figures for infection don’t seem to tally up to the response of increasing the number of cities being quarantined. 
 

seeing reports of hospitals being inundated in Wuhan and a new hospital being but the numbers infected are....?

[Dawei3]

1 hour ago, Tomsima said:

on the plus side my fangyan is gonna get a lot of practice. Not even joking,

That's really cool you have this ability.  I can say a few things in Shanghai hua and a few phrases in other Fanyans, but only enough to make people laugh.  Yet, even just a few words makes people happy.  Your skill must go over very well.  

 

When friends have tried to teach me a dialect similar to 普通话, but with different tones, I couldn't remember it - at all.  In addition, I wondered if people would just think I was speaking bad 普通话, rather than a fanyan.

 

 

[roddy]

@Flickserve - I think the tests for the virus take some time to complete, and they might not have capacity to test everyone. So people languishing in hospital corridors could be assumed to be cases for treatment, but not make it onto lists of confirmed cases. 

[imron]

31 minutes ago, roddy said:

So people languishing in hospital corridors could be assumed to be cases for treatment

In one video I saw, some of the people 'languishing' in corridors were covered head to toe in blankets to mark that they were deceased.

 

32 minutes ago, roddy said:

I think the tests for the virus take some time to complete,

Luckily Wuhan has a major biosafety research laboratory, planned and approved after the SARS outbreak to study and help cure highly contagious and fatal diseases.  Not that I'm one for conspiracy theories, but it sure is an amazing coincidence that it just so happens to be located in the city that is ground zero for this current outbreak.

 

 

 

[889]

Yes, the Daily Mail has been running an article hinting that sloppy practices at the lab might be responsible.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html

[Dawei3]

Previous coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS originated in animals and initial information also suggests animal origin of this virus (the technical term is zoonotic viral disease) .  The current virus could have escaped from a lab, but I doubt it (I have a health risk sciences background).    Animal origin of viral diseases is common.  The yearly flu is zoonitic (usually from birds). 

 

Chinese origin of zoonotic diseases is common due to the close proximity between humans and animals.  New flu strains often originate in China due to close contact between farmers and their ducks & chickens.  (And numbers:  large #s of chickens and farmers increases the probability)  

 

For a detailed discussion with references:  

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/snakes-could-be-the-original-source-of-the-new-coronavirus-outbreak-in-china/

(The authors question whether snakes could be the origin and i would as well, since a snake to human jump for a disease is very unusual.)

 

While the current virus is a coronavirus like SARS, the genetic overlap is only 70-80%.  A researcher noted that this is less than the genetic similarity between pigs and humans.  

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3047114/coronavirus-weaker-sars-may-share-link-bats-chinese-scientists

 

I like it when those on this forum offer info that I didn't know.  To illustrate the complexity of human susceptibility to zoonotic diseases, consider the simple flu.  If you have the flu, you can cough on your dog, cat, mouse or rat, they won't get sick.  But if you cough on your pet ferret, it likely will get sick.  Why ferrets and not rats & mice?  Somehow ferrets & humans share a similarity regarding the flu virus.  The positive side to this is we can test flu treatments on ferrets (as lab animals).  Also, ferrets are rare in the wild and humans rarely contact them, so neither species presents a flu risk to the other.  In contrast, chickens in a barn can have much contact with humans.  

 

Hence, a zoonotic origin for the current coronavirus is not unexpected.  More studies will be needed to confirm this.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[suMMit]

Just interested in your personal opinion. Would you guys, leave for a while to see how this develops? Im weighing it.

 

 

[889]

Depends on whether you're someplace that might be susceptible to sudden quarantine, and how leaving would affect your particular situation in China. But given the right circumstances, leaving does not seem an over-reaction. Besides, this may go on for a month or two, and it's soon going to get on your nerves.

 

Bear in mind too that if panic were to develop getting flights out on short notice might become difficult.

[roddy]

If I was there... yeah, I probably would, if I could. I've done my China epidemic in 2003. It would depend where I was, though. Some random Hubei city 50 miles from the quarantines? I'd be on the next flight, at least out of Hubei, and likely China. If I was in Beijing and life was halfway normal, I might make sure I had my passport and a big bundle of cash handy and wait and see.

 

The virus, I'm not worried about. Getting stuck in a shutdown city - no thanks. 

[889]

There's a strain of superstition that runs through Chinese culture. It's especially strong at the New Year. Deep forebodings must abound over the coming year.

[roddy]

15 more deaths, all in Wuhan, and 180 more cases, all in Hubei, NYT. Take it easy, though, @Tomsima. Maybe watch a movie.

[889]

Or set up a Youtube channel: "Report from Ground Zero." Use lots of heavy-on-the-fear background music.

 

Quarantine or not, you'll probably soon be back home.

[Flickserve]

1 hour ago, 889 said:

Report from Ground Zero." Use lots of heavy-on-the-fear background music

 

This happened on cable TV news in HK during SARS. The producers quite rightly got panned for it.

[Flickserve]

2 hours ago, 889 said:

There's a strain of superstition that runs through Chinese culture. It's especially strong at the New Year. Deep forebodings must abound over the coming year.

 

Mainland China itself is less superstitious from what I can gather. HK Chinese are really strong on superstition.

[Shelley]

3 hours ago, suMMit said:

Would you guys, leave for a while to see how this develops?

 

If I was there I would get the supplies in and hibernate till its all over keeping touch with humanity via the internet, tv, radio, text. I would dig out my textbooks and get stuck into some serious studying. 

 

After 2 weeks I would poke my head out of the door and see what was going on, normality? Go out and rejoin life.  No people about, tumbleweed blowing down the street? Close the door and repeat above for 2 more weeks.

 

Seriously though I would stay, you might not be able to leave, they are beginning to check people coming from China in airports etc. You also may not be able to return in all the chaos later.

 

[abcdefg]

Outside the gate of my apartment complex at 9:30 a.m. this morning. (This is mainly because of CNY, not because of the virus.)

 

 

 

Stores all closed, minimal traffic. Yesterday in WalMart, nearly everyone was wearing a mask. The nearest shopping center has a movie theater. When I checked this morning they had a full roster of films showing today. 

 

Was planning a short train trip (to Jianshui 建水) for the holidays and had already bought tickets. The (Chinese) friends with whom I was going decided that fighting the train crowds during this current health business was nuts and we all cancelled last minute. Made dumplings at one friend's house instead.  

 

Am glad to not be involved this time around. Glad it is someone else's headache. During SARS I was on full time active duty in the ER as well as being in charge. We didn't see much actual SARS, but saw thousands of people who were worried that their cold might become fatal. Had to stay alert while doing lots of careful testing and heavy duty reassuring. Staff was spread thin, since all the other stuff never stops. The "maybe SARS" just piles in on top of the car wrecks, heart attacks, overdoses and shootings. 

 

Had breakfast this morning with the elderly night watchman 看门人 and his wife. It was 汤圆 (glutinous rice balls in a sweet soup) and a poached egg, together in the same bowl. It's cold, and in a few minutes he will build a "hobo fire" of scrap wood in a ten-gallon paint drum outside by the gate. Their two grown children left town for this part of the holiday and they sort of took me under their wing. We will have hot pot tonight. 

 

[Flickserve]

16 hours ago, abcdefg said:

Was planning a short train trip (to Jianshui 建水) for the holidays and had already bought tickets. The (Chinese) friends with whom I was going decided that fighting the train crowds during this current health business was nuts and we all cancelled last minute. Made dumplings at one friend's house instead.  

sensible. I wonder how many people within China are actually continuing to travel.

 

16 hours ago, abcdefg said:

During SARS I was on full time active duty in the ER as well as being in charge. We didn't actually see much, but saw thousands of people who were worried that their cold might become fatal. Had to stay alert while doing lots of careful testing and reassuring. Staff was spread thin, since all the other stuff never stops.

the news of 15 more deaths is quite an increase considering that’s just a day. There must be more quite close to the brink. 

 

I was allocated to look after “clean” ICU during SARS (I am based in HK). There was a difficult period when staff were saying wearing the N95 for long periods during their shift was too intolerable. Coronavirus had not yet been identified. I decided to have the whole night with my N95 on in an easy chair (still with full protective gear) just off the ward. Never took my mask off once - fortunately staff compliance got a lot better after that demonstration. I admit it is hard to continuously wear N95 and you have to be really careful how to put it on and off to make sure it fits properly and does its job effectively. All that and being careful about not touching your mouth and nose. We didn’t have endless supplies so had to use a new N95 once a day. Of course, if your N95 got dirty, then it wasn’t a problem to change it in the middle of the day. We did wear goggles but I think that’s only necessary for healthcare workers and possible contact with high viral loads.

 

Frequent hand washing is a must. You would be surprised at the number of times your hand can touch a surface which has been touched by a lot of people. For example, my wife went to the ATM for some cash, I waited outside as there was a long queue. It was only ten minutes After she had finished that I checked with her if she had used her hand sanitiser (alcohol based gel rub). She had totally forgotten to use it. 
 

The worst part was once I saw a fairly elderly patient for potential admission with a bilateral pneumonia. The referring Medical officer said she’s probably not got SARS based on social history and hinted that she was well connected. F**k the connections and her X ray was typical of SARS - “sorry but no admission to the non SARS ICU.”. Had myself checked with a chest X-Ray as a precaution a few days later and the radiologist said he needed another CT scan on me because of a suspicious area. That was a scary few hours of my life. 

Apart from the medical aspects, the aspect of isolating yourself away from social contacts for long periods of time is not easy. You eat by yourself, you stay in a room by yourself - there were no smartphones then. Very lonely experience. 

[abcdefg]

2 hours ago, Flickserve said:

That was a scary few hours of my life. 

 

I can relate to that. Glad you came through it OK. You were right there in the thick of things, fighting the good fight. You have my respect. I will buy you a beer one of these days, during a future trip to Hong Kong. 

[Dawei3]

5 hours ago, suMMit said:

Would you guys, leave for a while to see how this develops? Im weighing it.

It's so hard to predict what will happen with this epidemic. 

 

For example, the quarantined cities:  what does this mean?  Will food trucks be stopped from shipping food into the city?  And if so, will the trucker be allowed to drive out?  And if not, what trucker would want to drive there? 

 

How will essential services be maintained?  What about workers that need to take mass transit to power plants?  Will they stay home?  (in addition to the fact that many may be too scared to go even if they could take a bus).  Years ago when there was concern in the US about the H5N1 flu, a study was done that found ~50% of health care workers wouldn't go to work during a epidemic.  In China, workers may be more stoic (I sense they will to help the country).  

 

If you leave, where would you go?  (you don't need to answer, I'm just offering questions to consider).

1 hour ago, Flickserve said:

Frequent hand washing is a must

This advice sounds boring - everyone wants N95s.  Yet, Flick Serve's washing advice is extremely important.  Simple soap & water can eliminate much of the risk (and if you have ethanol gel even better).  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jan Finster]

I am surprised the flight tickets to China have not gone down more. Out of curiosity, I was thinking of taking the contrarian approach and book a flight to China now. I was expecting the ticket prices to be super cheap, but when I checked for a ticket from FRA to PEK, in middle of February it was 576 € and a ticket from FRA to Chengdu in April is around 500€. This is not much cheaper than I would have expected at this time of the year.

 

4 hours ago, Dawei3 said:

This advice sounds boring - everyone wants N95s.  Yet, Flick Serve's washing advice is extremely important.  Simple soap & water can eliminate much of the risk (and if you have ethanol gel even better).  

 

 

5 hours ago, Flickserve said:

Frequent hand washing is a must. You would be surprised at the number of times your hand can touch a surface which has been touched by a lot of people. For example, my wife went to the ATM for some cash, I waited outside as there was a long queue. It was only ten minutes After she had finished that I checked with her if she had used her hand sanitiser (alcohol based gel rub). She had totally forgotten to use it. 

 

You could also get yourself some disposable silicone gloves. But do not reuse them.