Why isn't China opening up again?

[Dawei3]

On 6/12/2022 at 5:16 AM, alantin said:

However, the zero-covid policy is very much driven by Xi and there seems to be a deadlock in that the infallible leaders

Yes, the policy is inextricably to Xi.  He doesn't want to show he's backing off it until at least the next party congress when they confirm his continued leadership (and whether he'll back on after this remains to be seen)   

 

Premier Li has spoken against it, but whether he has real power remains to be seen.  A large number of personal & professional contacts in China now no longer support zero Covid and readily complain about it.  This is a huge contrast before February of this year.  Before this time, most were proud of how Covid had been managed.  Even early in Shanghai's outbreak, one professional contact was still a little smug about how effective the management had been done.  When Shanghai shut down the bubble tea shop, she proudly discussed it (not realizing it wasn't scientific to shut down a tiny shop; it wasn't the shop that was transmitting Covid).  The previous smugness has disappeared completely. 

 

Friends have relayed stories of personal challenges I hadn't considered:  One had her cooking range fail.  Fixing it was beyond the ability of her apartment's maintenance guy.  No one was allowed into her apartment complex to fix it.  She couldn't shop for a new one.  Multiply this by hundreds or thousands of times.....  Imagine that all of the auto dealers in Shanghai sold ZERO cars in April.  The economic damage is so significant from the shutdowns, there may be more & more voices against it.  

 

     

[abcdefg]

On 6/15/2022 at 8:15 PM, Dawei3 said:

Friends have relayed stories of personal challenges I hadn't considered:  One had her cooking range fail.  Fixing it was beyond the ability of her apartment's maintenance guy.  No one was allowed into her apartment complex to fix it.  She couldn't shop for a new one. 

I can easily relate to that and feel her frustration. To have bought food before the lockdown and not be able to cook it must have been very irritating. Even though you might tell yourself, "Oh, it could have been worse," I would not have been a happy camper. 

 

I chatted with a friend in Chuxiong 楚雄 yesterday. A small city a couple hours to the west of Kunming, towards the Burma border. She said life there had returned to normal. Perhaps they are "under the radar" since they are not a large urban center. Also, Yunnan historically has the reputation of being slightly lawless. She invited me to 过来玩儿。

[Tomsima]

On 6/16/2022 at 1:32 PM, abcdefg said:

Yunnan historically has the reputation of being slightly lawless

Currently watching 康熙王朝 at the moment, this made me chuckle ?

[abcdefg]

On 6/16/2022 at 12:07 PM, Tomsima said:

Currently watching 康熙王朝 at the moment, this made me chuckle

I haven't watched that. Does part of it take place in ancient Yunnan?

 

The mountains of Yunnan still today have the informal reputation of being where the unscrupulous coal mine owners go to avoid paying compensation after that tragic cave in that buried 24 souls in Shaanxi. 

 

One afternoon driving back from a tea-buying expedition to one of the remote growing areas in the south of the province, my friends and I slowed for a roadblock. We weren't far from the border with Burma; six of us packed into a rickety sedan. As we approached the officers, we saw 5 or 6 people squatting in the dirt off to the side of the road, under close supervision of armed police. 

 

We had no trouble, and were promptly sent on our way. As we pulled out, one of the guys said, “毒品." (drugs) Everyone nodded. It was not an unusual occurrence along the borderlands of Yunnan.  

[Jan Finster]

Another 5 years of travel restrictions would be crazy:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/27/alarm-in-beijing-after-announcement-zero-covid-policy-may-last-five-years#:~:text=Authorities in Beijing have sparked,mandatory testing and travel restrictions.

 

??

[sekkar]

Yesterday China announced that they are cutting the quarantine on arrival from 14 + X (where X is an undetermined amount of bullshit depending on your final destination....) to 7 days centralized quarantine + 3 days of home monitoring. 

 

Won't have a huge impact as the limiting factor is still the flights (cost, availability and reliability), but any change in the right direction is good news! I'm still holding on to a small hope that a Christmas trip back home might finally be possible.

[abcdefg]

On 6/28/2022 at 9:11 PM, sekkar said:

I'm still holding on to a small hope that a Christmas trip back home might finally be possible.

Hope you get to go! 

[Jan Finster]

On 6/29/2022 at 4:11 AM, sekkar said:

Yesterday China announced that they are cutting the quarantine on arrival from 14 + X (where X is an undetermined amount of bullshit depending on your final destination....) to 7 days centralized quarantine + 3 days of home monitoring. 

 

Won't have a huge impact as the limiting factor is still the flights (cost, availability and reliability), but any change in the right direction is good news! I'm still holding on to a small hope that a Christmas trip back home might finally be possible

 

Given the insane management of COVID, I wonder why anyone would even consider going to China right now? All my Chinese friends outside of China are glad they not in China right now. It takes a big shift in Chinese COVID fighting strategies until I consider going there.

[889]

There are a lot of people stuck outside with compelling family or business reasons to be in China.

[markhavemann]

On 6/29/2022 at 1:03 PM, Jan Finster said:

Given the insane management of COVID, I wonder why anyone would even consider going to China right now? All my Chinese friends outside of China are glad they not in China right now. It takes a big shift in Chinese COVID fighting strategies until I consider going there.

I've been in China for pretty much the entirety of COVID. Don't get the idea that the whole shanghai thing is the standard.

 

There were a few months of things being mostly locked down in the very beginning, (2020?) which turned out to be a really nice time to do things and explore the empty city. There are some slight inconveniences like occasional and often free covid tests, and scanning a QR code to get into places, but besides that, things have been pretty much normal (in Chengdu at least) almost the whole time.

[abcdefg]

@markhavemann -- It's reassuring to hear that. Similar accounts from most of my Chinese friends in Yunnan, even Kunming. (Less disruption in smaller cities than in the capital.)

[889]

Hong Kong is cutting hotel quarantine to three nights, followed by four days with a few restrictions at home or a non-quarantine hotel.

[abcdefg]

On 8/8/2022 at 5:00 PM, 889 said:

Hong Kong is cutting hotel quarantine to three nights, followed by four days with a few restrictions at home or a non-quarantine hotel.

 

That's good to hear, even though it has come too late to benefit me personally. 

[TheBigZaboon]

Japanese TV announced resumption of flights between Japan and Beijing this morning. I was reading something else, not listening to or watching the report, and when I looked up, there was an arrivals/departures board showing ANA flights on the TV screen. I don't know if it was archival footage, or an actual showing of live footage.

 

I didn't hear anything about quarantine or other requirements. But it should be easy enough to confirm for anyone interested.

 

TBZ

[889]

From SCMP, today, August 23:

 

"Beijing will finally allow foreign students to return to China after 2½ years of Covid-19-induced border restrictions, marking a major step towards reopening the country.

 

"From Wednesday, overseas nationals with valid residence permits for study can enter the country and those recently admitted by Chinese colleges can apply for visas, according to statements on the websites of a number of Chinese embassies."

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3189927/china-reopens-door-foreign-students-after-2-years-covid

 

[Moshen]

Thanks for that, 889!  Can you please also post if/when China begins to allow family visits for those with existing 10-year visas?

[Otoshi]

You guys have to check the websites of you local embassies. China is opening up for international students again. Germany also is open since this week.

[Otoshi]

but the flights are super expensive so i guess most international students wont study in this fall but in next spring semester in 2023

[889]

Flights from America at least are going to become harder to book starting in September, when the US government will be suspending 26 flights by Chinese carriers in retaliation for China's suspension of flights by US carriers.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/us-suspends-26-flights-by-chinese-airlines-in-escalating-dispute

[Singe]

Always interesting to hear of possible shifts in policy and, even though these comments were promptly removed, another example that there may be a policy shift. I guess we've said that before and with this being a particularly sensitive time for Xi and his aspirations, will we see a significant shift once his future is determined?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/30/chinese-thinktank-makes-rare-public-call-for-beijing-to-ease-zero-covid-policy