Why isn't China opening up again?

[markhavemann]

On 9/4/2022 at 12:40 PM, 889 said:

Anyone pointing to India seems to be living in the past and unaware there's a relatively benign variant now. Just where in the open world are bodies being burned today? That's what counts: today.

Yes you're right, we should never examine the past to make decisions about the present or future.

 

On 9/4/2022 at 7:04 PM, realmayo said:

If China stopped its zero Covid policy, Omicron would rapidly spread through the whole population. How confident are people that Omicron would (a) not lead to lots of deaths, and (b) not lead to lots of hospitals being overwhelmed?

Your post just summed up so much of what I am trying to say, in a much better way than I could have said it.  

[Insectosaurus]

On 9/4/2022 at 1:04 PM, realmayo said:

I think it has been established that vaccines do not stop Omicron infection and do not stop Omicron tranmission.

 

But they do counter serious disease and death. Sweden was probably the most open society during the entire pandemic and ended up with moderate excess deaths. Japan too, with close to zero. Bulgaria failed to vaccinate its population and have what might be the worst death rate in the world.

 

You misunderstood my point about India. I'm saying the wave in 2021 clearly would have looked different with a high vaccine coverage and I have seen nothing to suggest otherwise. I'm not saying the reason the situation is better today is because of the vaccinations only.

 

Of course there will be deaths. You don't have to equal covid to the normal flu to point out that China didn't lock cities down during flu seasons before covid was a thing. Every flu season brings excess deaths, both in rich countries and poor. China's policy has clearly impacted both the global and the Chinese economy, which also brings inflation, economic downturn and excess deaths. That those deaths are not as easy to track does not make them any less real.

 

On 9/4/2022 at 1:04 PM, realmayo said:

the best anti-Covid record in the world

 

I've learned not to debate the Chinese regime on this community, so I will just conclude by pointing out that best record does not equal best measures.

[889]

" . . .should just 'rip off the bandage' and take the pain in one go."

 

Stop the foolish emotionalism and propaganda. This is political and nothing more than political at this stage.

 

[abcdefg]

On 9/4/2022 at 6:04 AM, realmayo said:

"Smash Covid! Survive the economic downturn! Resist American imperialism!"

I can easily visualize this on large white banners with red letters. 大字报

[realmayo]

On 9/4/2022 at 12:42 PM, Insectosaurus said:

But they do counter serious disease and death.

They reduce it but some vaccinated people are still hospitalised and still die of Covid in e.g. the UK, USA etc. Also the Chinese vaccines are quite possibly a bit shit.

 

I just find it hard to believe that the Chinese leadership are (is?) being stupid on this topic. History shows that the survival of the Party is always the most important thing.

 

The question should be: is the survival of the Party better served by zero-Covid right now rather than by letting it rip right now?

 

The answer: if you think there there is a decent chance of: mass infections, overloaded hospitals, most people knowing someone who 'died of covid', mass panic, a sense that Beijing's Covid policy has failed, a sense that the Party has failed, a sense that the West is doing things better ... then zero-Covid is perfectly logical.

[realmayo]

On 9/4/2022 at 1:35 PM, 889 said:

Stop the foolish emotionalism

first cast out the beam out of thine own eye

[realmayo]

On 9/4/2022 at 1:39 PM, abcdefg said:

I can easily visualize this on large white banners with red letters. 大字报

 

打破新冠！克服衰退！抵抗美帝！斗争 斗争 斗争 ！

(ooh I feel quite weak at the knees!)

[Flickserve]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3199248/china-slashes-quarantine-time-international-arrivals-5-days
 

President Xi says one thing, actions are another?

[sekkar]

On 11/11/2022 at 3:22 PM, Flickserve said:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3199248/china-slashes-quarantine-time-international-arrivals-5-days
 

President Xi says one thing, actions are another?

 

No more 熔断/banning of flights is the important change in my opinion, at least now you can be sure that the flight you booked will actually be able to fly!

 

I'll be visiting my home country for the first time in 3+ years this Christmas, so this was pleasant news. Hopefully the changes will take effect soon (seems like they will, the related domestic policy changes already started getting rolled out)

 

[grawrt]

On 11/11/2022 at 3:22 PM, Flickserve said:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3199248/china-slashes-quarantine-time-international-arrivals-5-days
 

President Xi says one thing, actions are another?

 

In just this week alone many communities have undergone lockdown, schools switching to online, and mandatory 24 hour testing to enter many places in Beijing. 

 

I literally roll my eyes every time I read news like this. Not to mention that half the people who come back have to deal with their health kits getting blocked or 弹窗. 

[alantin]

There seems to be a change of pace now..

 

I've talked to a few people from Chongqing, Jilin and Shanghai over the last week and my impression over the last week's experience is that the execution of the opening up is going to be as varied as Zero-Covid. Half a year ago Fudan university published a peer reviewed paper on what would happen with Omicron variant if China suddenly lifted the restrictions and predicted 100 million symptomatic cases and 1,6 million dead within half a year. They suggested pushing vaccinations among other things.

 

However, now the officials are quoting Omicron having weakened down as making lifting the restrictions possible and they are promoting the vaccinations at the same time, at least in speeches. But none of the people I talked to mentioned vaccinations, but instead testing booths disappearing or restrictions being lifted, while some places still require recent tests even though they suddenly don't have places to go get tested.

 

What is your experience of the opening up now?

Is it "f*ck it, you wanted lifting of the measures, so we lifted the measures", or an orderly and planned opening?

[Flickserve]

Probably too late for vaccination drive. Like many other places turning from zero covid into a dynamic zero covid, people were complacent about getting vaccinated. 
 

I found it a bit odd that the China government is so strict on some things yet not strict on vaccinations given how dangerous covid was and the need to protect the elderly.

 

Why would the government push for vaccinations if the virus has weakened… I guess this must be why vaccinations haven’t been given much emphasis. 

[abcdefg]

Mixed message. Probably because of mixed political agendas more than issues having to do with the actual science. 

[grawrt]

On 12/5/2022 at 9:50 PM, alantin said:

What is your experience of the opening up now?

Is it "f*ck it, you wanted lifting of the measures, so we lifted the measures", or an orderly and planned opening?

 

There is nothing planned. The rules are changing every day. I'm just waiting patiently until all requirements for covid tests are removed so this nonsense can stop. Many people in my district are constantly complaining about waiting on long lines to get tested only to have it not appear on their health kit. 

 

[Moshen]

Looks like China is opening up for international travel shortly:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/26/business/china-travel-covid-quarantine/index.html

[abcdefg]

On 12/26/2022 at 12:18 PM, Moshen said:

Looks like China is opening up for international travel shortly:

 

That is very good news! I wonder when the Chinese consulates will resume issuing tourist visas. (Particularly curious about the Chinese Consulates in the US. Has anyone heard?)

[TheBigZaboon]

Sitting here wondering what will happen when China opens travel both ways. Kinda scary, actually... 

 

This morning there was a long item on one of the semi-news programs about Chinese residents in Japan buying up all the popular Japanese analgesics and ibuprofen products to send back to family and friends in China. It seems that these products, probably already available in China, have an excellent reputation for reducing fever. Whether it's true that they do or not, I don't know. But the prospect of thousands of Chinese tourists buying up everything here and sending it all back to China for family use or for resale is really scary. It's only over-the-counter stuff, so I'm not sure of its efficacy, but the prospect of its disappearance is very real.

 

TBZ

[Flickserve]

I once tried to get simple analgesics , ie paracetamol and ibuprofen, in Japan from the pharmacy. I remember thinking it was odd that the doses of tablets were much smaller compared to U.K. or HK. to the point where the Japanese versions could be considered as placebo effect. 
 

If you buy the japanese over the counter versions, you probably have to buy triple the amount of tablets for it to be comparable to a U.K. prescription. 

[alantin]

@Flickserve I’ve noticed the same. On the other hand my wife prefers to buy medicines in Japan when we visit. She says that they are better for her stomach than the ones you can buy here. And I guess a person’s weight plays a part too. For her the Japanese pills are enough but 400mg (probably twice the amount that works for her) of ibuprofen just makes me angry and I have to take at least 600mg if I want to see any effect.

[Flickserve]

On 12/27/2022 at 11:25 PM, alantin said:

And I guess a person’s weight plays a part too

True. 
 

I thought it was something to do with culture. Japanese tend to endure suffering without verbalising….

 

I certainly notice that Chinese and Japanese don’t express pain the same way as Americans or British who are much more vocal about pain. There are some other distinct groups who vocalise their pain a lot. 

 

 

I just bought paracetamol a couple of days ago and was limited to one box of 24 tablets. Usually I buy a few boxes but this time was limited. I didn’t check other pharmacies but then I today saw a news report that paracetamol was in short supply in Hong Kong. Not sure if the same thing is happening in the UK or other countries with overseas Chinese buying supplies and sending them back to China. 
 

Going back to the original topic, there are a lot of Jan the 9th being the date of opening of China. Japan have limited entries from mainland China, Taiwan and HK to four specific airports and those entering the country from these locations need to do a PCR test. 
 

China opens up but the world might close down to it!

 

 
 

I still can’t understand why China decided to dismantle covid restrictions so quickly. Singapore and Australia showed a great way handling the transition to opening of society to covid without mass panic. A bit of forward planning on dates of opening ensured a lot more of the population would go and get vaccinated.