How would a unified Korea benefit China/Japan?

[bhchao]

What do you think? What reasons can you think of why China would like to see a unified Korea, and what benefits would it bring to China? On the other hand, what are the potential negative outcomes?

Vice versa, how would Japan view a reunified Korean peninsula?

[wushijiao]

I’ve been reading a lot about this issue, and other issues regarding Korea, because I managed to get myself enrolled in a PhD-level Sino-Korean Relations course at Fudan.

It seems that China would not be in favor of a unified Korean peninsula because:

1) A destabilized NK would cause a monumental immigration crisis. China’s economically ailing Dongbei would absorb a huge amount of the refuges.

2) China does not want a pro-American, pro-US military presence on its border.

3) A unified Korea, with about 70 million people, could eventually become a much stronger regional power, to some degree.

4) Some people speculate that after the North Korean Kim regime goes, China will work hard to set up a puppet pro-Beijing government by using its massive economic leverage. If this is true, then Beijing wouldn’t want a unified Korea.

5) Believe it or not, there are some territorial disputes regarding the border, with hardcore Korean nationalists claiming big chunks of Chinese territory to be Korean. Clearly, the odds of the border changing are really low. But a unified Korea would be in much better position to threaten to change the border, especially if China fell into a period of weakness. China is also apparently worried about the loyalties of the 2 million ethnic Koreans who live on the border.

6) If communism officially failed in NK, that would give some Chinese liberals more guts in putting pressure on the current Chinese government.

I really can’t think of the reasons why China would want a unified Korea, except that a non-nuclear unified, peaceful Korea wouldn’t cause Japan to go nuclear, and it would decrease pressure in Japan for re-militarization and changing the pacifist constitution.

By the way, a good website about issues related to North Korea and its geo-politics is North Korea Zone.

http://www.nkzone.org/nkzone/

[atitarev]

In theory, everyone wants Korea to unite (NK, SK, China, Japan, Russia) but when they think about consequences, nobody says they really want it.

[gato]

1) A destabilized NK would cause a monumental immigration crisis. China’s economically aligning Dongbei would absorb a huge amount of the refuges.

I don't see how a reunification would cause North Koreans to flee to China. Wouldn't they go to Seoul instead?

2) China does not want a pro-American, pro-US military presence on its border.

If Korea reunifies, they probably would kick the US military out. The South Koreans are reluctant to do so now because of the threat of an invasion from the north.

3) A unified Korea, with about 70 million people, could eventually become a much stronger regional power, to some degree.

And they could be a check on Japan. That would make a lot of people in China happy.

4) Some people speculate that after the North Korean Kim regime goes, China will work hard to set up a puppet pro-Beijing government by using its massive economic leverage.

I doubt many people in China care about whether or not it has a puppet regime in N. Korea. Instability and craziness is a much bigger problem.

6) If communism officially failed in NK, that would give some Chinese liberals more guts in putting pressure on the current Chinese government.

But it doesn't have be promoted as a "failure of Communism" story. Instead, it could be sold as a "Peaceful Reunification" story, as a prelude to China's own reunification perhaps.

[wushijiao]

I don't see how a reunification would cause North Koreans to flee to China. Wouldn't they go to Seoul instead?

In a possible state of anarchy or war or warlordism, it might be easier to flee through the Chinese border compared to the DMZ. From what I have read, the Chinese border is pourous, like the US/Mexican border, while the DMX is heavily mitilarized.

If Korea reunifies, they probably would kick the US military out. The South Koreans are reluctant to do so now because of the threat of an invasion from the north.

Good point. However, the US pull-out may be drawn out over a few years.

And they could be a check on Japan. That would make a lot of people in China happy.

Yes. I've read that Japan also wouldn't be happy about a unified Korea, especially if Korea started to align with China over history issues. But then again, I'm not too familiar with what the Japanese think about NK. It was a big issue in the last PM campiagn though.

Also, the Koguryo issue could become as sensitive as Yasakuni, although I doubt China would let that get out of control. However, it was one of the main issues that Roh and Wen Jiabao talked about when they met last month.

I doubt many people in China care about whether or not it has a puppet regime in N. Korea. Instability and craziness is a much bigger problem.

Instability and craziness on China's doorstep would be horrible for China, no matter how you look at it, economically, immigration-wise, war-wise. That's why some people think China might work hard to form a close partnership/puppet government with the North. Especially if China basically monopolizes NK's foreign trade, and if Chinese companies had invested large sums of money in NK, they would have a strong motivation to promote a type of stability that wouldn't hurt Chinese interests.

But it doesn't have promoted as a "failure of Communism" story. Instead, it could be sold as a "Peaceful Reunification" story, as a prelude to China's own reunification perhaps.

Hehe! That would certainly be the bigger story, I'd imagine. "The inevitable historic trend towards re-unification!".

But it was interesting to see how much magazines like 凤凰 kept an eye on the reforms of Vietnam. My spin on that is that reforms in the socialist world are watched with an added sense of usefulness towards the Chinese situation.

As atitarev said, reunification is something everyone wants in principle, but few want in reality. Even South Korea, most people think, wouldn't be ready to absorb such a wrecked economy. East Germany economically lagged behing the West about 1:3 as far as GDP per person. In the Korea's it is 1:18, I've heard.

That's why both the South and China also favor a more gradual approach. I think in China's case, the high ranking government officials can also claim, with a lot of justification, that the so-called "Chinese model" of has been one of the most succesful models at taking undeveloped, "state-planned" economy countries and reforming them towards a developed country's status in a short ammount of time. So, I think China would favor a Chinese-style reform, almost on principle.

[HashiriKata]

It seems that China would not be in favor of a unified Korean peninsula because:

1) A destabilized NK would cause a monumental immigration crisis. China’s economically ailing Dongbei would absorb a huge amount of the refuges.

2) China does not want a pro-American' date=' pro-US military presence on its border.

3) A unified Korea, with about 70 million people, could eventually become a much stronger regional power, to some degree.

4) Some people speculate that after the North Korean Kim regime goes, China will work hard to set up a puppet pro-Beijing government by using its massive economic leverage. If this is true, then Beijing wouldn’t want a unified Korea.

5) Believe it or not, there are some territorial disputes regarding the border, with hardcore Korean nationalists claiming big chunks of Chinese territory to be Korean. Clearly, the odds of the border changing are really low. But a unified Korea would be in much better position to threaten to change the border, especially if China fell into a period of weakness. China is also apparently worried about the loyalties of the 2 million ethnic Koreans who live on the border.

6) If communism officially failed in NK, that would give some Chinese liberals more guts in putting pressure on the current Chinese government.

I really can’t think of the reasons why China would want a unified Korea, except that a non-nuclear unified, peaceful Korea wouldn’t cause Japan to go nuclear, and it would decrease pressure in Japan for re-militarization and changing the pacifist constitution. [/quote']

I'm quite dismayed to see people being trained to look at other people affairs purely in terms of their own interest, in terms of how much they can get out of their neighbour's misfortune, and nothing else matters. Worse still is that this way of "loving thy neighbours" has been propagated by some culture as the standard, wise way of thinking!!!

[gato]

I'm quite dismayed to see people being trained to look at other people affairs purely in terms of their own interest, in terms of how much they can get out of their neighbour's misfortune, and nothing else matters.

Me, too. But you can't ignore reality.

[HashiriKata]

Me, too. But you can't ignore reality.

Ways of thinking are culture and culture can change, nothing is inevitable.

We can destroy ourselves and we can destroy the earth, but that is not inevitable either.

It is regrettable that thousands years of (Chinese & other) thinking and civilizations are reduced to pure decorations.

(Ok, this is my lament of the day! )

[geraldc]

If the US military agreed to withdraw from the Korean peninsula after a Korean unification everyone with the possible exception of the US and Japan (maybe Taiwan) would be happy.

[Ian_Lee]

Before this question is posed, there should be another question: "Under what scenario will Koreas be united?"

These may be the possible scenarios:

(1) As everybody assumes, the North will collapse and the whole peninsula will be united under Seoul;

(2) Even though the chance may be distantly remote, it is still possible that Koreas may be united by Pyongyang by force;

(3) The happiest ending is that the North adopts the Chinese style reform and forms a federation with the South. And gradually they unify decades afterwards.

IMO Korea is situated in a very unique geopolitical location -- the only place in the world where 4 great powers converge. In order to insure eternal peace, a unified Korea should declare itself as a neutral state like that of Sweden or Switzerland to avoid spillover of further conflict. However, in order to achieve that goal, a unified Korea has to disallow presence of any foreign troops on their soil.

P.S. China and Korea do not have any boundary dispute but only different interpretation in medieval history.

[wushijiao]

Ways of thinking are culture and culture can change, nothing is inevitable.

I agree, but it has to be done systematically. Personally, I think good example of human rights and personal freedoms being institutionalized is the EU. In Asia, in contrast, there aren't any strong multi-national frameworks to solve some of the most sensitive issues, and so I think countries still have to look at foreign relations from a realists' point of view.