Return strategy and timing

[abcdefg]

I've been trying to sort out my return to Kunming. It has been much in my mind as I have read reports and speculations. This post is just me thinking out loud. Not sure if anyone else is in a similar boat. 

 

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@Jan Finster -- I would not be surprised at all if there were 2nd, 3rd and 4th waves of coronavirus in China in the upcoming months. The rapid response has contained the disease but it also prevented the development of a herd immunity. So, probably hundreds of millions of Chinese are still naive to the virus and may easily get infected again.

 

 

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@js6426 -- Over half my class is South Koreans, and a substantial portion of the international student body at HIT must be too, although I have no exact figure for that.  So far they have been unable to give us any idea of a return date, which I think is fairly understandable.  While things may be returning to normal slowly in China, I imagine the last thing they want is an influx of people from nations where infections are climbing.

 

Local grocery store shelves here are getting low on canned goods and paper products (NE Texas) and the Walmart parking lot is full of cars and pickups. In the last few days, more TV and print news has been focused on this epidemic here in the US, although actual cases still seem to be few. 

 

Most of my living the last 8 or 10 years has been in Kunming. It's my home and it's where my heart is. Would very much like to go back and I even have a plane ticket for the middle of April. Guess I will need to try and stay on top of the situation and make adjustments as that date comes closer. The days when I was able to say, "Damn the torpedoes, I'll just go where I want, when I want" seem to be over. 

 

Not easy. Lots of uncertainty. The situation requires sober reflection. 

[mungouk]

You're not alone, @abcdefg. 

 

I sort-of started a new job teaching in Hangzhou a few weeks back, but have been teaching online because my (overseas) employers won't let me go back to China until it's considered safe, according to government travel advice. 

Right now I'm staying with my mother in the UK, and the irony is that just as China seems to be reaching the end of the outbreak, it's kicking off in UK and the rest of Europe. So I'm likely to be on the other end of a travel ban from the Chinese end. 
 

I guess there must be many others in the same situation. Doesn't feel like much we can do right now apart from stay informed and support each other.

 

 

 

[Shelley]

You may have dodged the metaphorical bullet both ways if you return in April, missing the worst of it China by being in Texas and then returning to China as it begins to bite in the states. One thing about being in China is they now have a way of dealing with any other waves and can implement them at the drop of a hat.

 

Having said that age and health problems if any need to be taken in to consideration, but with your medical background you know the risks and can make your own well informed decisions.

As I know your enormous love for Kunming and China, I really hope you can and will return to enjoy the delights of cooking and the cultural pleasures once again.

 

All the best abcdefg.

[Dawei3]

44 minutes ago, abcdefg said:

I've been trying to sort out my return to Kunming.

China likely now has some of the best controls in the world.  I mentioned in another post that a news report said China is producing 116 million masks/day.  Everyone is wearing them.  Although cases of the virus will return to China, it will likely have difficultly having sustained transmission.  China & South Korea seem the best prepared right now.  

 

In addition, should China need to restart mass medical support, they can because they've already done so (and they likely learned much in the process).  In contrast, Italy is struggling with this.  (I think the US likely will as well, particularly considering that Trump doesn't seem to care who he gets the virus from or gives it to).  

 

Hence, I think your decision to return sounds very reasonable, particularly since you see Kunming as your home.  A few Chinese friends in the US are considering returning to China because they think it will be safer.  

[889]

To me, the major problem with returning is leaving again if there were some development -- having nothing to do with the virus -- requiring you to head back.

 

It's not just quarantine on the US end, but flying back when you'll have to transit places that may bar those who've recently been in China.

 

On the other hand, if you don't head back to Kunming soon soon, you face the increasing risk China will ban recent travellers from the US.

 

Tough choice.

 

[abcdefg]

21 minutes ago, 889 said:

It's not just quarantine on the US end, but flying back when you'll have to transit places that may bar those who've recently been in China.

 

International travel has become more unpredictable and problematic. 

[Flickserve]

Sounds like you can't wait for your original date of return. Going back sooner is definitely something to consider especially as information about the US situation with lack of testing is even less than in China. 

 

 

[Jim]

See  on news Yunnan has gone 23 days with no new cases.

[ChTTay]

Beijing announced anyone arriving (from March 13) will be quarantined for 14 days in a quarantine facility at their expense. Advisable to check if any city you fly into to has their own quarantine regulations.

[abcdefg]

1 hour ago, ChTTay said:

Advisable to check if any city you fly into to has their own quarantine regulations.

 

Good suggestion; will do. My current ticket requires me to change planes in Shanghai (PVG.) And that has been one of China's "hot spots" from what I have read. 

 

8 hours ago, Flickserve said:

Sounds like you can't wait for your original date of return. Going back sooner is definitely something to consider especially as information about the US situation with lack of testing is even less than in China. 

 

Interesting idea. Had not even thought of doing that. Not sure it would be possible, since I have home repair tasks that are still not completed here. (Putting on a new roof and doing foundation repair.) 

 

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@Jim -- See  on news Yunnan has gone 23 days with no new cases.

 

Hooray! Chatted last night with a Kunming friend who is my coach/personal trainer at the Kunming gym where I exercise. He said the facility will re-open tomorrow (Monday.)

 

Another friend who works at a large health club and sauna says they are still closed with no clear re-opening plans. I have been sending her living expense money. When management shut the doors at the start of the outbreak, her income and benefits stopped. 

[889]

Everything is moving so quickly.

 

Reports now that from Thursday Hong Kong will impose 14-day home quarantine on everyone coming from the US and the UK.

 

 

[Flickserve]

2 hours ago, abcdefg said:

Interesting idea. Had not even thought of doing that. Not sure it would be possible, since I have home repair tasks that are still not completed here. (Putting on a new roof and doing foundation repair.) 

ouch. I got a bad feeling those repairs may take longer than anticipated 

[abcdefg]

10 hours ago, Flickserve said:

ouch. I got a bad feeling those repairs may take longer than anticipated 

 

Yes, it's major stuff. The job might very well cost more and take longer than I had hoped. I have been putting this stuff off for years. 

 

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@889 -- Reports now that from Thursday Hong Kong will impose 14-day home quarantine on everyone coming from the US and the UK.

 

That's what I was fearing. Mainland China might not be far behind. 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3075294/coronavirus-hong-kong-issues-red-travel-alert 

Coronavirus: Hong Kong issues ‘red’ travel alert on the United States, Britain and Ireland and imposes quarantine measures on arrivals from the three countries and Egypt

[abcdefg]

From today's Sincocism newsletter (Bill Bishop): 

 

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Beijing has responded to the surge of overseas Chinese, and some foreigners, rushing back to the perceived safety from the virus inside China by now requiring a 14 day quarantine in designated locations for all travelers, with a handful of exceptions, entering Beijing from overseas, at their own expense. That policy has not yet extended to all points of entry but I would be surprised if it will not be in the near future. The authorities are rightfully concerned about a surge in new infections from imported cases, as they remain focused on preventing a second wave of the outbreak that would push the economy into an even deeper hole.

 

[Flickserve]

Definitely.

 

in HK, there are a lot of students coming back this week from boarding schools and Universities. Inevitably, some will be bringing additional baggage. 

[889]

From Thursday HK is home quarantining essentially all arrivals. Other countries are doing the same or barring entry to non-residents.

 

It is clear we are step-by-step heading to a global shutdown.

 

Think of it as a game of musical chairs: you plop down for the duration wherever you are when the music stops. And God forbid you should be the one caught without a place.

 

[abcdefg]

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@Flickserve -- It sounds like a new reality is coming for at least a year and likely a couple of years. We won't be able to live like we have done and travelling as a hobby is going to spiral downwards.

 

12 hours ago, 889 said:

Think of it as a game of musical chairs: you plop down for the duration wherever you are when the music stops. And God forbid you should be the one caught without a place.

 

I've been thinking a lot about this new reality. The way I've been living most of the last 9 or 10 years may no longer be tenable: In China on a tourist visa, making runs to neighboring countries for a new visa stamp every 60 days and so on. It seems likely that it will never again be "business as usual. My "China Decade" might effectively be over. 

[Shelley]

Oh @abcdefg thats sad, I really hope this isn't true and you can get back to your beloved Kunming eventually.

[matteo]

4 hours ago, abcdefg said:

I've been thinking a lot about this new reality. The way I've been living most of the last 9 or 10 years may no longer be tenable: In China on a tourist visa, making runs to neighboring countries for a new visa stamp every 60 days and so on. It seems likely that it will never again be "business as usual. My "China Decade" might effectively be over. 

 

It is a depressing time for everyone, and an impossibly difficult moment to be objective and make long-term decisions. 

So even if it's tempting - and maybe unavoidable - to just give in to bleakness and negativity, just keep in mind that probably it is not an accurate assessment of reality. Just wait for your head to be broken before you bandage it (literal translation of a common Italian say). 

 

Humanity has bounced back from way worse things (apparently, I was just reading this random article https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/) and chances are that the new "normal" won't be worse that the old ? 

 

[abcdefg]

2 hours ago, matteo said:

It is a depressing time for everyone, and an impossibly difficult moment to be objective and make long-term decisions. 

So even if it's tempting - and maybe unavoidable - to just give in to bleakness and negativity, just keep in mind that probably it is not an accurate assessment of reality. Just wait for your head to be broken before you bandage it (literal translation of a common Italian say). 

 

I like that old Italian saying!