Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

[889]

A couple of points:

 

-- Since the virus seems to hit older people harder, you'd expect higher death rates in areas with older populations. Oddly, least affected might be countries with lower life expectancies.

 

-- A lot of play today in the British press especially about projected deaths from the virus. But these projections are based on death rates during the first couple of months of the epidemic. While a vaccine may be well down the road, it's not unreasonable to expect death rates to fall as effective treatment approaches get identified. Bit of scare-mongering going on unless these news reports also acknowledge this.

[Ruben von Zwack]

6 hours ago, 889 said:

it of scare-mongering going on

 

I wouldn't blame them. Apparently, it took the drastic and heart wrenching reports from Italy to wake up Germany.

[Lu]

The Netherlands is now mostly locked down as well. It started with a ban on events of more than 1000 people (last week), then 100 people, then all events, then last night it was announced that the schools were closed starting today (Monday) and restaurants and bars were closed starting 18:00 that night (about 20 minutes after the press conference in which it was announced). I worry these measures come too late.

 

So I am at home, not meeting with people, and going between planning what to do with All That Time! and reminding myself that this is what I do every day: sit at home, translate, send emails, make phonecalls, and so there is no All That Time! to fill and I can pretty much just continue as usual. Only without exercise (rowing club is closed as of yesterday) or seeing people.

[roddy]

31 minutes ago, Lu said:

so there is no All That Time! to fill

Similar story here - my day to day life is actually fairly unaffected. And here in the UK everything is still open, albeit very quiet. Concert hall last night was as empty as I've ever seen it, pubs are quiet, gym is quiet. Etc. 

 

Given that the UK approach is still "you're mostly going to get it anyway", I almost feel I'd be better off getting it now so a) there's still hospital capacity if I need it and b) I can stop worrying about inadvertently affecting old folk. 

[Flickserve]

6 minutes ago, roddy said:

Given that the UK approach is still "you're mostly going to get it anyway", I almost feel I'd be better off getting it now so a) there's still hospital capacity if I need it and b) I can stop worrying about inadvertently affecting old folk. 

with a ~1%(?) chance of death, not many people will take up that sort of offer. 

long term problems in survivors after the disease are not clear

[Flickserve]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine
 

Maybe a bit of goodwill for the Germans just came back. I wonder how much it’s worth.... 

 

Trump probably thinks to himself that the money he would have spent on exclusive access is what was would have been spent on other public health programs that he cut.

[Jan Finster]

14 hours ago, Ruben von Zwack said:

In Germany, one federal state after another is putting more strict measures into place, but it is pretty chaotic. For example, Berlin announced that they will close nightlife bars and clubs from next Tuesday on, and then changed their mind and closed them immediately.

From Germany: Just got back from the pharmacy. A queue of old ladies and none of them would stop their 5 minute chat with the pharmacist, who would every now and then lean over to better understand them...

 

Here is a graph showing the risk of each profession: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/15/business/economy/coronavirus-worker-risk.html

Not too reassuring that I am in the top right corner, but it could be worse. After all I am not a oral hygienist...

[Jan Finster]

9 hours ago, 889 said:

Since the virus seems to hit older people harder, you'd expect higher death rates in areas with older populations. Oddly, least affected might be countries with lower life expectancies.

Mortality is most certainly not related to age in absolute numbers. If the average life expectancy in Russia is 57 years for men, then this is equivalent to being 80 year olds in Japan, Italy or Germany...

 

38 minutes ago, Flickserve said:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine
 

Maybe a bit of goodwill for the Germans just came back. I wonder how much it’s worth.... 

 

Trump probably thinks to himself that the money he would have spent on exclusive access is what was would have been spent on other public health programs that he cut.

 

Only the most selfish p** ?would ask for exclusive rights to a vaccine in a pandemic.

 

Luckily, the main owner of this company is also one of the founders of SAP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAP_SE). He does not need Trump´s billions.

 

[somethingfunny]

I was in a city centre pub on Friday night and it was about 80-90% of normal traffic. I imagine that will have evaporated by this Friday.

 

Life, otherwise, largely as normal in the UK. Except now I spend most of my day not thinking “what am I teaching next period?” but instead “what is this madness, why am I still here?”

[889]

"Luckily, the main owner of this company is also one of the founders of SAP. He does not need Trump´s billions."

 

You might have mentioned that the Gates Foundation -- that big American non-taxable charitable foundation -- is a major investor in the company and has also supported its work with big research grants. That is, it got where it is with big dobs of US tax-free cash.

 

Ignoring this is like discussing the Wirtschaftswunder without mentioning the Marshall Plan.

[Jan Finster]

32 minutes ago, 889 said:

You might have mentioned that the Gates Foundation -- that big American non-taxable charitable foundation -- is a major investor in the company and has also supported its work with big research grants. That is, it got where it is with big dobs of US tax-free cash.

I did not know. But this is even better news. ? Gates is not the kind of guy, who is selfishly interested in exclusively supporting the USA.

My point is that Trump wanted exclusive rights to the vaccine. This would be equivalent of biological warfare as you would let the other economies go up in flames while protecting your own economy. 

 

37 minutes ago, 889 said:

big American non-taxable charitable foundation

But what is your point? If it is not the American taxpayer´s money, then it has not got much to do with the USA with the exception that most philantropists in that foundation are American.  Most of them have earned their money globally. Certainly Bill has. Just like the SAP guy may be German, but as you may know, SAP earns its money globally.

If the US had been the only sponsor of that company and it was all sponsored by American taxpayers money, Trump would have a point... 

[889]

Do you really know the details of whatever offer America made the company, if any?

 

Basically it's just another opportunity for the bros (and sis) to jump on the bandwagon and engage in some Trump-bashing, much abetted by much of the media.

 

And Bill Gates has become the great philanthropist by using his foundation to accumuluate wealth tax-free. That's a taxpayer subsidy supporting his philanthropy.

[Flickserve]

Malaysia has gone into semi lockdown. Another religious congregation causing an outbreak. Malaysia have jumped on it far faster than Italy.

 

Korea have another outbreak- a church squirted saline from the same bottle in people’s mouths to protect them. They used the same bottle across all people. Enough said. This has happened in a highly educated society. 

 

UK have given a live press conference. Frankly speaking, the messages coming out from the government and chief medical officers are confusing. 7 days isolation still stands if you are ill but family members isolate 14 days. The rest of the world is 14 days straight off. That herd immunity theory is going to haunt them badly. 

56 minutes ago, 889 said:

Do you really know the details of whatever offer America made the company, if any?

if the story is true, it just shows how much of a businessman he is. 

[Ruben von Zwack]

The Trump story is fake news.
"The company denied allegations like that on Sunday: „We do not know where this rumour came from"“, said Franz-Werner Haas, executive board of CureVac, to Tagesspiegel. „We have not received an offer. And we will not engage in speculations“. It was correct however that CureVac was at the White House, among other Biotech companies, and spoke to the US president, who signalled „that we should hurry - because a health care issue was pending."

(translated from Der Tagesspiegel, a decidedly left-leaning or, in US-American terms, liberal, newspaper)

[889]

Europe looks like it's going to wall itself off. And local news reports are effectively warning one and all that Hong Kong is soon going to announce it's home quarantining everyone coming in, and barring entry to non-residents coming from highly-infected places.

[Jan Finster]

6 minutes ago, Flickserve said:

This has happened in a highly educated society. 

Never fails to amaze me. But, according to my observation no matter how educated a society is, the majority of the people are clueless about proper/healthy diet and hygiene...

I give Warren Buffett the benefit of a doubt about many things including when he says he drinks more Coke to protect against Corona, but he also admitted he would still go to a major meeting, "because he had already agreed to it". The guy is 89 years old!

[abcdefg]

11 hours ago, Flickserve said:

with a ~1%(?) chance of death, not many people will take up that sort of offer. 

 

I'm an ER doctor, retired. Would report for duty tomorrow morning if asked. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/us/coronavirus-physicians-emergency-rooms.html?algo=top_conversion&fellback=false&imp_id=739134863&imp_id=572455840&action=click&module=trending&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

 

Quote

 

Two Emergency Room Doctors Are in Critical Condition With Coronavirus. 

 

SEATTLE — Two emergency medicine doctors, in New Jersey and Washington State, are in critical condition as a result of coronavirus, reinforcing concerns that the nation’s front-line medical workers are becoming especially vulnerable to the virus, the American College of Emergency Physicians said.

“A lot of us think that despite everything we do, we will probably be exposed,” said Dr. William Jaquis, the chair of the group. Still, he said, “The first reported case certainly sends a shock wave through the community.”

Emergency rooms represent a busy intake point for hospitals, where patients come in with symptoms but no diagnosis. As the coronavirus spreads during the typical flu season, emergency physicians are triaging large numbers of patients around the country with symptoms that could be the virus.

 

“As compared to anyone else at a hospital, you are operating with the most incomplete information,” said Dr. Angela Fusaro, an emergency doctor in Atlanta.

 

 

 

[Shelley]

We have just taken the decision based on the update from the UK government to close our shop for the foreseeable future as I am in the vulnerable group and can't take the risk. 

As we are in the entertainment business ( electronic audio equipment) the source of much of our work is also closing so won't be losing much business anyway and not worth being open for one or two passersby that don't actually want anything we sell.

We are in a positive financial situation so not worried for the immediate future and will access what funds are available from the government for small businesses.

 

Take care people.

[889]

Sorry to hear that.

 

Myself, I'm trying to figure out the endgame, as borders are shutting and economic activity ceasing worldwide. What's the point at which normal activity resumes? Zero new cases? Otherwise, the epidemic can quickly spark up again. But zero cases is a long long ways down the road.

 

Point is, once countries have made the policy decision to close themselves off, they may find it very difficult to justify re-opening.

 

[roddy]

Yeah, there's talk of measures lasting months, potentially a year, here in the UK. Would be a hell of a good time to try out a universal basic income, frankly. Edinburgh's not dead, but we're talking early Sunday morning levels of activity at rush hour on a Tuesday. I'm making cautious use of what's open while it still is, but am expecting months of home-based activity. Really got no idea how this plays out. By the time things can get started again, the businesses won't be there. Maybe we'll all have developed a new economy based around paying each other for online novels and throwing bags of pasta over garden fences...

 

Thankfully I and I think everyone I know is in a relatively good position to cope with this. Living payday to payday on a short-term contract? Scary times. Hope to see some robust measures to help there.