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Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion


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mungouk

SCMP has a list of contact details (phone numbers, websites etc) for foreign nationals in China if you need more info.

 

3 hours ago, roddy said:

The eye thing

 

SCMP 23 Jan: Chinese expert who came down with Wuhan coronavirus after saying it was controllable thinks he was infected through his eyes

 

"Peking University respiratory specialist Wang Guangfa contracted illness after visiting the city and believes lack of eye protection may have been the cause"

 

 

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Flickserve

The WHO doesn't have a better plan because there is no precedent for this in modern times. 

 

No country has ever locked down a city of this size nor near enough a province. 

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Flickserve

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1505090-20200127.htm
 

Medical experts from the University of Hong Kong warned on Monday that governments should implement "draconian measures" to limit the spread of the new Wuhan virus, saying the number of cases is likely to be far higher than reported.

The dean of the university's medical school, Gabriel Leung, said his team has estimated that as of Saturday, some 44,000 people in Wuhan alone were likely to have been infected by the new virus. 


Around 25,000 of these were likely to be sick, with the others only in the incubation stage and not yet showing symptoms.

 

 

Today’s press report. 
 

Looks very bad. 

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24 minutes ago, Flickserve said:

Medical experts from the University of Hong Kong warned on Monday that governments should implement "draconian measures" to limit the spread of the new Wuhan virus

Interesting. I just literally read a news story with “experts” say quarantines won’t work and they aren’t stopping the spread. Here it is . 

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realmayo

I can't help thinking though about the usual headlines every year about the 'New Year migration' 'half-a-billion people on the move' etc. The lockdown may be unprecedented, and not normally helpful in other places in the past, but the amount of movement through and around central China during the New Year holiday is surely unprecedented anywhere else in the world.

 

I mean: perhaps the % of people who end up not travelling, because of the lockdown, will be considerably greater in this instance than at any other time of the year.

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murrayjames
8 hours ago, Tomsima said:

obviously not really any use, but thought it was funny the men in our household have upped the daily baijiu to 60% strength

 

My father-in-law is doing the same.

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Flickserve
1 hour ago, ChTTay said:

Interesting. I just literally read a news story with “experts” say quarantines won’t work and they aren’t stopping the spread. Here it is . 


 

There are pluses and minuses. If you don’t let people know in advance, then it’s probably effective. However, the scale and mobility of the China population is unprecedented. 
 

Professor Leung has is a Canadian trained physician and did public health at Harvard. His department also has an ex-WHO senior member  in charge of something like epidemics. Can’t recall exactly. 
 

 

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10 hours ago, Tomsima said:

eye must only refer to sneezing particles directly into the eyes or being carried there by contiminated hands

Tomsima and Jan's comments are correct.  A big part of the eye versus lung risk is a numbers issue:  

 

A typical person actively inhales 20 m3 of air everyday.  In contrast, air contact with your eyes is passive. 

 

Also, your eyes aren't designed for absorption and their surface area is very small.  Your lungs have a surface area of ~186 m2 or 1/2 the size of a tennis court.  (to compare, your skin is just 2 m2).  The lung tissue is thin & moist and evolved to absorb things.  In contrast, the eye did not.  

 

Hence, if someone sneezes into your eyes or you touch them, transmission is possible.  However, just walking around won't present that risk.  

 

    

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In terms of WHO not criticizing China, I think this is appropriate.  As others have noted, no one has a perfect plan on what to do.  

 

Tony Abbott, Australia's Health Minister said it well at a Pandemic flu conference in 25 Oct 2005:  

"In the absence of a pandemic, almost any preparation will smack of alarmism.

If a pandemic does break out, nothing that's been done will be enough."

 
This is a challenge for China and likely any of our countries.  The reality that all of our countries should be taking draconian measures (i.e., before the epidemic gets started).  However, this would likely "smack of alarmism,"    so we'll likely delay until things get moving.  Criticism of China's early efforts could likely be directed at each of our countries now (few in China imagined it would get this bad and few in my country of the US likely think this of the US as well).  We only know after-the-fact if we were "too alarmist" or not enough alarmist.    
 
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For a highly credible discussion of N95 reuse, see:  https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/hcwcontrols/recommendedguidanceextuse.html 

 

In quick summary, as long as the N95  "maintains its structural and functional integrity and the filter material is not physically damaged or soiled,"

it can be reused.

 

When reusing, wash your hands before putting on a respirator and wash them before & after taking it off.  The article notes that ~99.8% of pathogens were trapped on the filters after handling or a simulated sneeze.  Hence, even if you don't wash your hands after touching a contaminated filter, the likelihood that you will transfer pathogens is very very low.  

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On a positive (?) note, this might become the rap anthem of the Wuhan epidemic: https://streetvoice.com/Stygian/songs/603730/

 

I translated the final verse: 

 

我们城市病了 所有人都会感到难过

Our city is sick, everyone feels awful
家人朋友都在担心 我们并不懦弱

Family and friends are all worried, but we're not cowards
总会有一天能够战胜病魔 迎来曙光

There will come a day when we defeat this serious illness and welcome the light of dawn
大家携手打败困难 一起找到远方

Everyone join hands and beat this challenge, together find the distant place

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Flickserve

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jan/27/the-disease-always-gets-a-head-start-how-to-handle-an-epidemic-ebola-sars-coronavirus
 

Nice succinct piece on epidemics. 


‘The number-one thing is not to politicise the disease’


 

24 minutes ago, Dawei3 said:

Tony Abbott, Australia's Health Minister said it well at a Pandemic flu conference in 25 Oct 2005:  

"In the absence of a pandemic, almost any preparation will smack of alarmism.

If a pandemic does break out, nothing that's been done will be enough."


catch 22. Do your job well, people criticise for over reacting. Hold back on some actions because people complained of being too proactive in the past, then you still get criticised. 

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1 hour ago, Flickserve said:

Do your job well, people criticise for over reacting

That's what happened with the Y2K bug.  Billions were spent fixing the issue and then nothing really happened and everyone was like "why did we need to spend all those billions?" without realizing that nothing really happened because billions were spent fixing the issue.

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8 minutes ago, Shelley said:

"self quarantine themselves"

This is the advice in China too. Everyone stay indoors as much as possible for 14 days. My place of work sent the message via the education department and I also got a text upon arrival in Beijing saying much the same. 

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34 minutes ago, Shelley said:

Yes, the streets are deserted

In Wuhan

 

Beijing so far is normal CNY levels of people. In Shunyi where I live it’s pretty normal generally as most residents are from Beijing and their home is here anyway. 
 

I have seen some western newspaper headlines playing up “empty streets” and, of course the virus will contribute, but that’s also normal for CNY anyway. 

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