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Jan Finster

Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

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大块头

(From the Sinocism newsletter)

 

The situation with the Wuhan virus has gotten much worse over the last day, with the number of official cases now 544 and the death toll at 17.

The authorities have just announced that they are effectively quarantining the city starting Thursday morning, in the first notice issued by the “Wuhan Municipal New Coronavirus Infection Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters 武汉市新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情防控指挥部” 武汉疫情指挥部:全市离汉通道暂关闭 公共交通停运::

[My translation] In order to prevent and control the outbreak of pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus, effectively cut off the transmission route of the virus, resolutely curb the spread of the epidemic and ensure the safety and health of the people, the relevant announcements are as follows:

The city's buses, subways, ferries and long-distance passenger transport will be suspended from 10:00 a.m. on January 23, 2020. Unless there are special reasons, citizens should not leave Wuhan. The airport and departures will temporarily closed. The schedule for restoration of those services will be announced later.

We ask the general public and passengers to please understand and support!

为全力做好新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情防控工作,有效切断病毒传播途径,坚决遏制疫情蔓延势头,确保人民群众生命安全和身体健康,现将有关事项通告如下:

自2020年1月23日10时起,全市城市公交、地铁、轮渡、长途客运暂停运营;无特殊原因,市民不要离开武汉,机场、火车站离汉通道暂时关闭。恢复时间另行通告。

恳请广大市民、旅客理解支持!

 

Stay safe @Tomsima

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DavyJonesLocker

At Beijing airport at the moment . Everyone and I mean literally everyone is wearing a mask. No extra checks though

 

@suMMit I read that a travel ban in and out of Wuhan is now in place. 

 

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889

Basically, if you're in Wuhan now you are stuck in Wuhan. And stuck within walking distance of wherever you are staying in Wuhan. The city is effectively quarantined.

 

Myself, I'd be very very cautious about travelling to places like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou in the coming few weeks. If the epidemic spreads, so may the defacto quarantine.

 

 

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Balthazar

Currently in Suzhou, face masks have basically been unobtainable in our area of the city for the last two days (even though the pharmacies have imposed a quota of two masks per person). Mostly staying at home though, and our neighborhood has started spraying the common areas with disinfectant on a daily basis.

 

Heading back to Norway through Shanghai in early February,  will be interesting to see how things will have developed by then.

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suMMit
30 minutes ago, 889 said:

Myself, I'd be very very cautious about travelling to places like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou in the coming few weeks. If the epidemic spreads, so may the defacto quarantine.

What makes you think of these cities specifically, rather than say BJ or wherever?

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DavyJonesLocker

Took this photo a minute ago

IMG_20200123_115111.jpg

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889

"What makes you think of these cities specifically, rather than say BJ or wherever?"

 

I believe it spreads somewhat more easily in warmer, humid environments. That's why the danger will probably increase as we move towards late February and March.

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mackie1402
17 minutes ago, 889 said:

"What makes you think of these cities specifically, rather than say BJ or wherever?"

 

I believe it spreads somewhat more easily in warmer, humid environments. That's why the danger will probably increase as we move towards late February and March.

 

Also, this doesn't help...

 

 

WechatIMG3852.jpeg

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mackie1402

I've heard (from good authority) that yesterday alone 300,000 people left Wuhan. This could be one of the possible reasons they are restricting all travel in and out of the city. 

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roddy

This would be a good time to check you're registered with your consulate and getting their emails. Presumably they're going to be thinking about what to do for nationals in Wuhan who don't want to be. 

 

WHO guy sounds quite unsure about the closure of Wuhan. Suspect there might have been a bit of surprise at that. 
 

It's unprecedented, isn't it? Even at the height of SARS, you could still get about.
 

First time round, it was all interesting to see first hand. If I was in China now, I'd be considering a short-notice holiday.

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Tomsima

We just went through the ETC coming off the motorway, there was a special lane which all cars with wuhan number plates (鄂A) had to go through. As we went through you could see police getting everyone out of every car and doing temperature scans. People are complaining that there was a cover up for too long, but you can't fault how quickly things are moving.

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Flickserve

if there was a coverup, it wasn’t for too long. 
 

things have moved rapidly and China maybe one of the few countries in the world where a whole city can be quarantined so quickly. They should have enacted the decision faster as people predictably try to run off. 

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roddy

Not sure. 

 

WHO guy: Responding to the public transport ban, Dr Didier Houssin, chair of the committee, said: “We need some time to understand the specific measures that have been taken.” 

That sounds to me like even the WHO are surprised. 

 

Then here: “It could very easily backfire,” he said, adding that the restrictions could prevent healthy people from fleeing the city, perhaps exposing them to greater risk of infection. “In general, this is risky business.” ... "That type of thing is obviously an excessive response.”

 

I won't be surprised if this ends up seen as an over-reaction. Although maybe they've seen something we haven't...

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roddy

Two more cities closed off (neither of which I've heard of), according to the NYT

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carlo

I’m not an epidemiologist, but as another SARS veteran, what I don’t understand is that if you have to close off access, you close off access. You don’t cancel flights, trains and buses, and then let private cars go. That would logically cause a surge in people looking for ways to get out ASAP, which may help the virus travel faster, not slower.

 

I had this to read over breakfast btw: http://www.caixin.com/2020-01-23/101507670.html

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Jan Finster
31 minutes ago, roddy said:

“It could very easily backfire,” he said, adding that the restrictions could prevent healthy people from fleeing the city, perhaps exposing them to greater risk of infection. “In general, this is risky business.” ... "That type of thing is obviously an excessive response.”

 

I won't be surprised if this ends up seen as an over-reaction. Although maybe they've seen something we haven't...

 

I am very surprised he says this. Coronavirus has an incubation period (time from infection to showing signs) of 2-14 days. This means there are potentially people leaving Wuhan that have been infected, but do not show any signs yet (and therefore will not be detected by the fever scanners). They may only signs 2-14 days later when they are already in Beijing, Taiwan, USA, etc. 

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suMMit

They have closed the highway exits

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roddy

Bit more from the WHO on the quarantine.

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