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Jan Finster

Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

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roddy

WHO opting not to declare a global health emergency ( or whatever they call it) again. Don’t see how that tallies with the unprecedented approach in China. 

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Weyland
6 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

The danger with coronaviruses is that they are mutating and potentially becoming more aggressive over time!

First. They don't become more aggressive, rather with every new mutation we are less likely to have an in-build immunity to it. The whole reason why we immunize. Mutations don't work like evolutions in Pokemon.

 

11 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

And saying it kills only people beyond 48 years of age...I am going to stop here...😤


I didn't say that. Let's look at the SARS outbreak; the median age of deaths was 75. Meaning the the vast majority of people that died due to the disease

image.thumb.png.8d232fe57ac8d5e7238d29dfef71ad42.png
Source: WHO

The mortality rate goes by a logarithmic scale. Serious question; do you know how a logarithmic scale works? This is the mortality of the flu by age group (plotted out logarithmically)


image.thumb.png.311e3f61cb032a99b83ceef44741b1fb.png

Source: CDC

 

23 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

That would be a 10-30% mortality of the "non-biting" coronavirus family...


It still doesn't have much bite. The median age was 75, meaning that most of its victims were above the age of 75. It only kills the most vulnerable. Just like any flu epidemic. Which kills 1000x the amount of people SARS killed every year. IF you want to talk about a troubling epidemic that "has bite" then I suggest you read up on the Spanish flu, which was so deadly because it killed outside the traditional range. See graph.

image.thumb.png.8555d4c3712bdf3a8258cf094f228a00.png
 

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roddy

I now have no idea if I should be taking the local old folk to a Wuhan temple fair, or a sealed bunker. 

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Weyland
12 minutes ago, 889 said:

Let's stay on topic.

 

Those that want to vent about US politics have plenty of other places to vent, including the non-China issues board here.


You aren't bothered by the thought that this story on the Corona Virus with China as its stage has merely risen prominence to create a competing media story to distract from the Trump Impeachment trials? It doesn't bother you that is "Story from China" card is only pulled out whenever the West needs to be distracted from US Politics?

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Dawei3
13 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

That would be a 10-30% mortality of the "non-biting" coronavirus family...

You're raising many valid points.  The mortality rate is important.  Also important is the Ro value, i.e., how many cases arise from each new infection.

 

An Ro of >1 means the disease will propagate between humans.  Ro of <1 means the disease will decline & die out (e.g., H5N1 flu - it rarely spreads between people, it's Ro is <1.  We only continue to see it because of re-introduction from birds.)  We don't know the Ro for this new coronavirus.  If the Ro is much above 1, even a low case mortality rate can important.  

 

For comparison, the Ro for measles is between 12 & 18 (the average infected person gives the disease to 12 to 18 people - hence, the problem with people who don't vaccinate). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jan Finster
11 minutes ago, Weyland said:

The median age was 75, meaning that most of its victims were above the age of 75.

 

Do not lecture us on statistics if you do not know what the median is. 

 

Here is a hint:

"Median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups - that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older. It is a single index that summarizes the age distribution of a population."

 

So, how exactly are "most of its victims above the age of 75"?

 

Please just stop!

 

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Weyland
8 minutes ago, roddy said:

WHO opting not to declare a global health emergency ( or whatever they call it) again. Don’t see how that tallies with the unprecedented approach in China. 


Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)

"SARS, smallpox, wild type poliomyelitis, and any new subtype of human influenza, are always a PHEIC and do not require an IHR decision to declare them as such."

Going by the population of Wuhan you can expect 3 to 4,000 people to die of the flu this winter season. The amount of people getting hospitalized will be around 12 to 15,000, while the amount of people getting the flu will be close to half a million. We don't know how many people have the the new corona virus. It could be a modest 6,000, but it could be way more. If the mortality of people that get admitted to the hospital for the flu is around 25%.

The numbers I took from data from the Netherlands which happens to have the same amount of population as the areas quarantined in China.

What's important: We don't know how many people are infected. But, nobody is going to admit to a number that is 100x the amount of people that have been identified. A lot of people will get the new corona virus and think that's its the common cold, or even just the flu. We won't know the amount of people that have been infected till after the fact, if there is even an "after the fact" as I doubt the Chinese government (or any government for that matter) is going to spend the time and money figuring out what the real (ball-park) numbers were.
 

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889

"It doesn't bother you that is 'Story from China' card is only pulled out whenever the West needs to be distracted from US Politics?"

 

Wrong thread wrong time.

 

What does bother me is folk who have to throw Donald Trump into every discussion no matter the relevancy. What a bore.

 

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Weyland
14 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:
27 minutes ago, Weyland said:

The median age was 75, meaning that most of its victims were above the age of 75.

 

Do not lecture us on statistics if you do not know what the median is. 


I'm sorry. I should have said: Most of the victims were of the age of 75, or older. With 83% of the victims being above the age of 60 I am (correctly) assuming that majority of death were people that were 75 or older. Because, guess what? IF you take include the median in your number you're by definition talking about the "majority".

 

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ChTTay

I can’t access the ECHO article at the moment as I’m behind the GFW. 
 

Please don’t let this thread turn into an argument about stats.
 

One of the biggest issues I see is people spreading bogus or ill informed stories around on wechat. These random wechat-based blogs that are no more than clickbait. I’ve already seen people posting them. 

 

This seemed like a Fairly informative read on fatalities from this virus 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-virus-what-we-know-about-the-fatalities/ar-BBZggOq

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Flickserve

HK has now included anybody with any travel history from Hubei in the last two weeks as part of their initial diagnostic criteria.

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Tomsima

damn, im just sitting here waiting to be blocked from leaving hubei now. Booked an earlier flightout from chongqing in a few days, but who knows if were even going to be able to make it over to the airport...

 

in terms of the wechat thing, it is going crazy at the moment, i would say about once every 15 minutes everyone gathers round a phone for the latest rumour, who knows whether it's true or not. ive got to say, having this thread going is keeping me sane, it's a breath of fresh air from all the fear here

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Flickserve

Definitely it's hard to stay calm when everyone is panicking around you especially in these days of fast communication (and fast false rumours). 

 

Some reassurance occurs when we see that although the infection is quite wide, deaths haven't been as high as SARS or MERS. The public health officials, from their perspective, say the widespread infection makes control more difficult.

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suMMit

@Tomsima why not just head to cq now

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Balthazar

Probably wants to spend 除夕 with family.

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ChTTay

I’m still yet to see any reports about any young and healthy fatalities. However, it does usually say “the majority” of fatalities are older, with pre-existing  health conditions. Not seen the minority of situations mentioned. Anyone else?

 

I did read they’ve released people (specifically mentioning a 10 year old) having recovered from the virus. 
 

Out in the sticks here it’s not a big topic of conversation but it comes up. At this time of year most people stick to their village or the surrounding ones. The old people rarely leave the area. It’s only young ones that might work elsewhere. It’s mostly in the nearest towns and cities. 

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Tomsima

caused some arguing, but were looking to buy tickets to chongqing tomorrow. at the rate things are going, we wont be able to get out if its any later. jingzhou has now been quarantined, yichang is surely next (first death reported today)

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roddy
6 hours ago, Tomsima said:

ive got to say, having this thread going is keeping me sane, it's a breath of fresh air from all the fear here

When you're looking to internet forums for sanity, you know things are bad. 

 

That said, do your best to keep calm. It's the panic, not the disease, that'll cause you problems. Keep your head when others, blah blah blah. And have the consulate phone number handy - I've found them (you're UK, yes?) to have good advice at times, and they may be willing to make a phone call to get you past any over-zealous obstacles. Good luck with the travel, and let us know how you get on. 

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Jan Finster

My friend just sent me a video of downtown Shanghai. There were hardly any people or cars on the street. I have been there before. Super busy normally. Now a ghost town...

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